ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
23:36 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock dipped from previous 2.4M to -4.565M in April 18
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock dipped from previous 2.4M to -4.565M in April 18
23:30 USD/JPY clings to 142.00 as Fed uncertainty and Yen strength weigh
The USD/JPY pair struggles to regain ground on Tuesday, trading around the 142.00 mark during North American hours after bouncing off earlier lows near 140.65.
USD/JPY recovers from earlier lows but holds below 142.00.Trump’s criticism of Powell and Fed independence dents Greenback appeal.Technical outlook remains bearish with key resistance at 143.05.The USD/JPY pair struggles to regain ground on Tuesday, trading around the 142.00 mark during North American hours after bouncing off earlier lows near 140.65. The pair’s modest rebound comes as markets stabilize but the upside remains limited amid lingering concerns over the Federal Reserve’s autonomy. President Donald Trump’s continued attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell—whom he labeled a “major loser”—have shaken confidence in the Greenback’s credibility. White House officials have admitted that the administration is exploring legal ways to remove Powell, adding to market unease.The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded slightly to 98.50 but remains well below the psychological 100.00 level. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen benefits from both safe-haven demand and growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue hiking rates, even amid global tariff-related uncertainty. The ongoing lack of clarity surrounding US-China trade policy has only reinforced the JPY’s recent gains.From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY displays a bearish structure despite today’s mild bounce. The pair trades close to the top of its daily range (139.88–141.58), but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 32.50 while the MACD continues to flash a sell signal. The 20-day (145.88), 100-day (151.52), and 200-day (150.31) Simple Moving Averages all point downward, supported by bearish signals from the 10-day EMA (143.06) and SMA (143.05). Resistance levels are found at 143.05, 143.06, and 144.87, while immediate support is located at 141.05.Unless US political tensions ease or macro data turns decisively pro-USD, the bias for USD/JPY remains tilted to the downside. A drop below 141.00 could open the path to retest key levels at 139.60 and 138.00.
USD/JPY daily chart
USD/JPY daily chart
22:34 Australian Dollar holds steady near 0.6400 despite renewed USD strength
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades with a modestly bullish tone on Tuesday, consolidating near the 0.6400 region during North American trading hours.
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades with a modestly bullish tone on Tuesday, consolidating near the 0.6400 region during North American trading hours. The pair has shown resilience despite a minor rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which bounced slightly from a three-year low as markets adjust to profit-taking after Monday’s steep USD decline. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have also eased from recent highs, while AUD/USD clings to a narrow daily range between 0.6377 and 0.6439.Investors remain cautious as the US-China trade dispute shows no signs of easing. Tensions escalated after the White House ordered a probe into potential tariffs on all mineral imports, prompting fears of supply chain disruptions. China responded with new export controls on key rare earth materials. Despite solid Q1 growth in China at 5.4% year-over-year and March’s strong industrial production and retail sales, the Aussie remains vulnerable due to its economic ties with Beijing. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia is still expected to cut rates in May, further capping the upside.Daily digest market movers: USD rebounds, trade tensions and Fed political jitters ask for cautionUS President Trump renewed pressure on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell, accusing him of dragging the economy and calling for immediate rate cuts.Fed independence concerns grow as markets digest reports of Trump exploring Powell’s dismissal before term completion.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut global growth forecasts to 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, citing century-high US tariffs and policy uncertainty.Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index slipped further to -13 in April, its weakest reading since November.Trump’s trade policies have increased headline inflation risk by up to one percentage point, according to IMF estimates.Investors remain wary as the Fed independence debate and tariff uncertainty threaten to undermine USD credibility in the longer term.Technical analysis: AUD/USD retains bullish bias amid narrow range
The AUD/USD pair maintains a constructive technical outlook despite slipping slightly during the session. The price action is holding within the 0.6377 to 0.6439 daily range, with short-term indicators suggesting further upside potential if support zones hold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 58.6700, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to issue a buy signal, underlining sustained bullish momentum.The Stochastic %K at 94.4800 and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 99.8800 both hover in neutral zones, not yet signaling exhaustion. Importantly, all short-term Simple Moving Averages (SMA)—including the 10-day at 0.6329, 20-day at 0.6266, and 100-day at 0.6286—as well as the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6336, align to support upward movement. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6474 represents a key medium-term resistance and may limit any aggressive bullish extension.Immediate support is seen at 0.6336, followed by 0.6332 and 0.6329. On the upside, resistance is expected around 0.6413, then 0.6423, with stronger pressure awaiting near 0.6474. As long as the Aussie remains above the 0.6330 handle, short-term sentiment stays in favor of buyers.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades with a modestly bullish tone on Tuesday, consolidating near the 0.6400 region during North American trading hours. The pair has shown resilience despite a minor rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which bounced slightly from a three-year low as markets adjust to profit-taking after Monday’s steep USD decline. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have also eased from recent highs, while AUD/USD clings to a narrow daily range between 0.6377 and 0.6439.Investors remain cautious as the US-China trade dispute shows no signs of easing. Tensions escalated after the White House ordered a probe into potential tariffs on all mineral imports, prompting fears of supply chain disruptions. China responded with new export controls on key rare earth materials. Despite solid Q1 growth in China at 5.4% year-over-year and March’s strong industrial production and retail sales, the Aussie remains vulnerable due to its economic ties with Beijing. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia is still expected to cut rates in May, further capping the upside.Daily digest market movers: USD rebounds, trade tensions and Fed political jitters ask for cautionUS President Trump renewed pressure on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell, accusing him of dragging the economy and calling for immediate rate cuts.Fed independence concerns grow as markets digest reports of Trump exploring Powell’s dismissal before term completion.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut global growth forecasts to 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, citing century-high US tariffs and policy uncertainty.Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index slipped further to -13 in April, its weakest reading since November.Trump’s trade policies have increased headline inflation risk by up to one percentage point, according to IMF estimates.Investors remain wary as the Fed independence debate and tariff uncertainty threaten to undermine USD credibility in the longer term.Technical analysis: AUD/USD retains bullish bias amid narrow range
The AUD/USD pair maintains a constructive technical outlook despite slipping slightly during the session. The price action is holding within the 0.6377 to 0.6439 daily range, with short-term indicators suggesting further upside potential if support zones hold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 58.6700, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to issue a buy signal, underlining sustained bullish momentum.The Stochastic %K at 94.4800 and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 99.8800 both hover in neutral zones, not yet signaling exhaustion. Importantly, all short-term Simple Moving Averages (SMA)—including the 10-day at 0.6329, 20-day at 0.6266, and 100-day at 0.6286—as well as the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6336, align to support upward movement. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6474 represents a key medium-term resistance and may limit any aggressive bullish extension.Immediate support is seen at 0.6336, followed by 0.6332 and 0.6329. On the upside, resistance is expected around 0.6413, then 0.6423, with stronger pressure awaiting near 0.6474. As long as the Aussie remains above the 0.6330 handle, short-term sentiment stays in favor of buyers.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
22:25 Forex Today: It is PMI-day!
The Greenback managed to regain strong upside traction and bounced off recent three-year lows vs.
The Greenback managed to regain strong upside traction and bounced off recent three-year lows vs. its main peers despite persistent tariff jitters and further Trump-Powell effervescence.Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 23:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) posted decent gains on Tuesday, reversing part of the Monday’s pessimism despite the mixed tone in US yields across the board. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications are due, followed by the flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, New Home Sales, the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles, and the Fed’s Beige Book.
EUR/USD lost upside momentum following Monday’s yearly peaks, receding to the 1.1430 area in response to the firmer tone in the US Dollar. The advanced HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Germany and the Euroland will be released, seconded by the EMU’s Balance of Trade results and Construction Output.
GBP/USD slipped back to the low-1.3300s after failing to extend its rally north of tops around the 1.3420 zone. The Public Sector Net Borrowing figures are due along the advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
USD/JPY broke below the 140.00 support for the first time since September 2024, although it managed to stage a strong rebound later in the day. The preliminary Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected on the Japanese docket.
AUD/USD receded from yearly peaks near 0.6440 following the better tone in the Greenback. The flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due on April 23.
WTI prices rebounded with certain conviction past the $63.00 mark per barrel despite the stronger Dollar and unabated concerns surrounding US tariffs.
Gold prices rose to a record high at $3,500 per troy ounce underpinned by safe-haven demand. However, the yellow metal retraced part of that advance in the latter part of the day. Silver prices added to Monday’s uptick, coming closer to the key $33.00 mark per ounce.
21:25 Fed’s Kashkari: Can’t allow inflation expectations to get unanchored
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that US tariffs act as a drag on economic growth and emphasised the central bank’s responsibility to prevent those trade measures from fuelling longer-term inflation.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that US tariffs act as a drag on economic growth and emphasised the central bank’s responsibility to prevent those trade measures from fuelling longer-term inflation.Key QuotesIndependent monetary policy leads to better economic outcomes, is foundational. Notes that his own change from dove to hawk to current moderate came from analysis of data. Fed policymakers are making best call they can, based on data. That's what independence means. Tariffs are somewhat inflationary. Tariffs also slow growth. Fed's one tool is in tension. Too soon to judge path of interest rates. Logical that tariff leads to one-time increase in prices, but backdrop of high inflation runs risk of unanchoring inflation expectations. Can't allow inflation expectations to get unanchored. So far long-run inflation expectations have not moved much. Fed's job to make sure they don't. Fed's job is to make sure tariffs don't lead to longer-term inflation. To no longer have a trade deficit, investors would have to conclude US is no longer best place to invest. Still early to tell if that's happening. Bond yield up and dollar down indicates some reassessment of where global investors want to invest. All of this can change quickly, with resolution of trade uncertainty. Haven't seen this level of anxiety since COVID hit. Interest rate level in US is largely influenced by capital flows.
21:17 Mexican Peso strengthens to yearly high as trade war cools, mood improves
The Mexican Peso (MXN) posted substantial gains versus the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, sponsored by an improvement in risk appetite due to optimistic news of a ‘de-escalation’ of the trade war between the US and China. At the time of writing, USD/MXN trades at 19.58, down 0.61%.
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At the time of writing, USD/MXN trades at 19.58, down 0.61%.The economic docket on both sides of the border keeps investors leaning on news headlines and geopolitics. Bloomberg reported that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he saw a de-escalation with China during a closed-door meeting in Washington. Wall Street cheered the news, as the three leading US equity indices edged higher.Despite this, the harsh rhetoric of the White House against Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell keeps investors doubtful of the US central bank's apolitical stance. On Monday, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, plummeted by over 1% to reach a three-year low of 97.92.As of writing, the DXY recovered some ground, up 0.44% at 98.74. This capsized the fall of the USD/MXN, which fell to a yearly low of 19.51.Data-wise, Mexico’s National Statistics Agency revealed that the economy remained stagnant in March. The economy had shown signs of weakness since late last year, due to tariff threats, leading to a downward review of the Mexican economy.Mexico’s economic docket will be busy this week, with traders awaiting the release of Retail Sales, Mid-month inflation, and Economic Activity data.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso stays strong amid absent economic docketPostures between Banco de Mexico (Banxico) and the Fed favor further upside in USD/MXN. At its May meeting, Banxico is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points (bps). On the contrary, the Fed is seen as cautious, as some officials have shown concerns about a reacceleration of inflation spurred by tariffs.Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said that there is no agreement with the US about tariffs, yet she added that she established that Mexico has a deficit on steel and aluminum with the US. She added, “The US exports more steel and aluminum to Mexico than vice versa.”Mexico’s Mid-month inflation is expected to rise from 3.67% to 3.79% YoY and core figures to increase from 3.56% to 3.77% YoY.Economists project that the Mexican economy will most likely improve in February after contracting 0.2% MoM in January and will expand by 0.6%. Every year, the economy is projected to contract sharply from -0.1% to -0.6%.Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said the central bank is ready to continue easing policy.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso holds firm as USD/MXN stays below 19.70USD/MXN turned bearish after it dropped below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 19.89. This exacerbated the drop toward 19.58, a five-month low, before paring some losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown that sellers are losing momentum, opening the door for buyers to challenge the 200-day SMA.A breach of the latter will expose the psychological 20.00 barrier. If cleared, the next stop would be the confluence of the April 14 high and the 50-day SMA near 20.25-20.29 before testing the 100-day SMA at 20.33. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
21:07 US Dollar attempts modest recovery amid Fed independence concerns, growth downgrades
The US Dollar Index (DXY) struggled to extend its bounce on Tuesday, hovering near the 98.50 zone after recovering slightly from the three-year trough of 98.01. The rebound came as markets reopened from the Easter Monday holiday and reassessed the broader macro landscape.
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Technical analysis: DXY battles oversold pressure, but outlook remains fragile
The technical picture remains heavily bearish for the US Dollar Index (DXY), which trades around 98.48 as of Tuesday’s US session. Despite a minor daily gain, the broader structure shows no sign of a lasting recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 25.38, signaling a potential oversold bounce. Similarly, the Williams Percent Range at −91.15 offers a buy signal, although short-term oscillators such as the Stochastic RSI Fast remain neutral.Momentum continues to favor sellers. The MACD remains firmly in sell mode, and key moving averages reinforce this bias: the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 101.96, the 100-day at 105.96, and the 200-day at 104.60 are all trending lower. Additional bearish cues are provided by the 10-day EMA at 100.01 and SMA at 100.17, both acting as key resistance zones.Immediate support is seen at 98.33. A break below this level could re-expose the 97.73 area. On the topside, 100.01, 100.17, and 101.30 serve as near-term resistance levels. While short-term indicators hint at a bounce, the broader trend remains vulnerable without resolution to ongoing political and economic tensions.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Technical analysis: DXY battles oversold pressure, but outlook remains fragile
The technical picture remains heavily bearish for the US Dollar Index (DXY), which trades around 98.48 as of Tuesday’s US session. Despite a minor daily gain, the broader structure shows no sign of a lasting recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 25.38, signaling a potential oversold bounce. Similarly, the Williams Percent Range at −91.15 offers a buy signal, although short-term oscillators such as the Stochastic RSI Fast remain neutral.Momentum continues to favor sellers. The MACD remains firmly in sell mode, and key moving averages reinforce this bias: the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 101.96, the 100-day at 105.96, and the 200-day at 104.60 are all trending lower. Additional bearish cues are provided by the 10-day EMA at 100.01 and SMA at 100.17, both acting as key resistance zones.Immediate support is seen at 98.33. A break below this level could re-expose the 97.73 area. On the topside, 100.01, 100.17, and 101.30 serve as near-term resistance levels. While short-term indicators hint at a bounce, the broader trend remains vulnerable without resolution to ongoing political and economic tensions.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
20:37 Gold pulls back from $3,500 record as China trade hopes spur profit-taking
Gold price retreats after hitting a record high at $3,500, but traders booking profits and improving risk appetite send the Bullion drifting lower, although US Treasury yields drop. At the time of writing, XAU/USD hovers near $3,400, down over 0.63%.
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At the time of writing, XAU/USD hovers near $3,400, down over 0.63%.Breaking news from United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said that he sees a de-escalation with China, improved the market mood, which is a headwind for Bullion prices. Since the headlines, the yellow metal drifted lower by $50 from around $3,420 to $3,370.Despite this, uncertainty about US trade policies and President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve (Fed) can boost demand for Gold and push prices higher. So far in the year, Gold prices have remained up almost 29% due to geopolitics and Trump’s swinging mood.Last week, Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would remain data-dependent and even flagged the chance of a stagflationary scenario, acknowledging, “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension.”Amid this backdrop and an uncertain economic outlook, investors flock to safety, as the flows of Gold ETFs are picking up, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).“Global physically backed gold ETFs1 reported strong inflows in March totaling US$8.6bn. This helped drive total Q1 flows of US$21bn (226t) to the second highest quarterly level in dollar terms, only behind Q2 2020's US$24bn (433t),” revealed the WGC.Daily digest market movers: Gold price retreats towards $3,400 on risk-on moodThe US 10-year Treasury yield falls two basis points to 4.395%.US real yields followed suit, edges down two bps to 2.175%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yieldsIn rates markets, money market traders have priced in 91 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July.Data-wise, this week's US economic docket will be packed with Fed speakers, S&P Global Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price retraces after hitting $3,500Gold’s uptrend remains intact, yet the fall below $3,400 was short-lived as the precious metal recovers some ground. If buyers want to re-test $3,500, they must surpass $3,450 once more before testing the all-time high. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned overbought, and failure to reach 80 could pave the way for Bullion’s pullback.On the downside, XAU/USD’s daily close below $3,400 could push Gold’s price towards $3,350, followed by $3,300. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
20:04 United States 2-Year Note Auction: 3.795% vs previous 3.984%
United States 2-Year Note Auction: 3.795% vs previous 3.984%
19:55 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Holds bullish tone despite minor decline
The EURGBP pair is exhibiting a bullish overall signal, currently trading around the 0.8600 area after slipping slightly during Tuesday’s session following the European close.
EUR/GBP trades near the 0.8600 zone after easing modestly post-European session.Momentum indicators send mixed signals, but moving averages remain aligned to the upside.Support rests at 0.8577, 0.8570, and 0.8546; resistance is seen near 0.8591.The EURGBP pair is exhibiting a bullish overall signal, currently trading around the 0.8600 area after slipping slightly during Tuesday’s session following the European close. The pair remains comfortably mid-range between the day’s low of 0.8569 and the upper boundary near 0.8611, suggesting consolidation within an upward trend.Technically, momentum indicators are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds neutral near the 58 level, while the MACD continues to print a buy signal. However, the Stochastic RSI is also neutral, and the Momentum indicator tilts slightly bearish, hinting at some hesitation among buyers in the short term.Still, the broader technical backdrop remains constructive. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), located at 0.8506, 0.8369, and 0.8386 respectively, are all pointing upward. Bullish confirmation also comes from the 10-day and 30-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), holding above 0.8569 and 0.8490, reinforcing near-term strength.Support is seen at 0.8577, followed by 0.8570 and 0.8546. On the upside, resistance is expected around the 0.8591 area. The overall bias remains positive so long as price holds above key averages heading into the Asian session.
EUR/GBP Daily chart
EUR/GBP Daily chart
19:33 US Treasury Secretary Bessent sees de-escalation with China – Bloomberg
The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects a de-escalation of the situation.
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The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects a de-escalation of the situation.Bessent said that although negotiations had not started, a deal is possible suggested people that attended a private event by JP Morgan Chase & Co. in Washington.Financial markets reaction to Bessent commentsThe DJIA has risen over 1,000 points to 39,200 as risk appetite improved. Gold prices tumbled below $3,400, down more than 1%, and the US Dollar gained over 0.39%, according to the DXY, which is up at 98.70.In the FX space, the EUR/USD fell below 1.1450, down 0.4% and the GBP/USD stays below 1.3360 down 0.15%.Gold daily chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
19:30 USD/CAD stalls near 1.3850 as Fed controversy fuels further weakness
The USD/CAD pair is treading water near the 1.3850 zone on Tuesday, struggling to extend its rebound after printing a fresh six-month low closer to the 1.3800 handle.
USD/CAD trades sideways near 1.3850 after dipping to a six-month low around 1.3800Trump’s attacks on Fed independence and Powell weigh on USD sentimentTechnical structure stays bearish, resistance seen near 1.3805 and 1.3935The USD/CAD pair is treading water near the 1.3850 zone on Tuesday, struggling to extend its rebound after printing a fresh six-month low closer to the 1.3800 handle. The broader US Dollar remains on the defensive following two weeks of heavy losses, pressured by political risks and speculation about Federal Reserve leadership changes. President Trump’s criticism of Jerome Powell and suggestions of a possible dismissal have intensified concerns over the Fed’s independence, further dampening confidence in the Greenback.The US Dollar Index (DXY) staged a modest bounce toward the 98.50 area after touching a three-year low at 98.00, but overall sentiment remains fragile. Investors are bracing for deeper losses amid persistent tensions around US-China trade, Powell’s autonomy, and growing doubts about the USD’s reserve status. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar holds steady, supported by expectations that the Bank of Canada will maintain a neutral monetary policy stance.From a technical perspective, USD/CAD maintains a bearish bias. The pair is currently trading around 1.3800, within a narrow range of 1.3781–1.3852. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding near 31, suggesting neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Momentum indicators are both flashing sell signals. Major moving averages, including the 20-day (1.4103), 100-day (1.4278), and 200-day (1.4006) Simple Moving Averages, all slope downward, confirming a bearish trend. Additional resistance is noted at 1.3805, 1.3934, and 1.3938.Unless the political dust settles or incoming US data shifts sentiment, USD/CAD is likely to remain capped below the 1.3930–1.3940 zone, with risk skewed toward a further dip beneath 1.3800.
USD/CAD daily chart
USD/CAD daily chart
19:16 Dow Jones jumps 900 points on Tesla optimism, but Powell tensions keep market fragile
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recovered on Tuesday, gaining over 900 points or 2.49% above the 39,000 figure as investors await Tesla’s (TSLA) earnings report late in the day.
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Despite this, the market mood remains fragile amid fears that the White House continues its harsh rhetoric regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.DJIA rises 2% above 39,000, while investors weigh earnings optimism against Fed independence fears and trade uncertaintySentiment has improved, as depicted by the other two leading United States (US) equity indices, which are also rising. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively. Trump’s comments had suggested that if the economy slows, it will be due to the Fed not cutting interest rates.Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Nick Timiraos, a Fed watcher, wrote, “President Trump is signaling that he will blame the Federal Reserve for any economic weakness that results from his trade war if the central bank doesn’t cut interest rates soon.”Uncertainty about US trade policies and Washington’s threat to Fed independence drove investors to seek safety in haven assets. Gold reached a record high at $3,500, while appetite for the greenback has taken a hit, as the US Dollar hit a three-year low below the 98.00 handle on Monday.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of six currencies, has recovered some ground. It is up at 98.56, up 0.25% after reaching a low of 97.92.As of this writing, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sees a de-escalation with China and an unsustainable situation, as revealed by Bloomberg.Meanwhile, recent data suggested that traders are pricing in 91 basis points of Fed rate cuts toward the end of 2025.Dow Jones price forecastThe DJIA downtrend remains in place, but traders have bought the dip and pushed the index past 39,200 on Bessent’s comments. If buyers want to see 40,000, they must clear 39,500 first.Conversely, bears need to drag the index below 39,000 for a bearish continuation, which would open the door for lower prices. The next support would be 38,500, followed by 38,000, ahead of testing the year-to-date (YTD) low of 36,614, which was hit on April 7. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
18:35 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Holds bullish tone despite mild pullback from highs
The EURUSD pair is flashing a bullish signal, currently seen trading around the 1.1500 area after posting a slight decline during Tuesday’s session following the European close.
EUR/USD trades near the 1.1500 zone after drifting modestly lower post-European session.Technical outlook remains bullish overall, with MACD signaling buy and moving averages aligned higher.The EURUSD pair is flashing a bullish signal, currently seen trading around the 1.1500 area after posting a slight decline during Tuesday’s session following the European close. Despite the intraday dip, the pair maintains its broader upward trajectory and remains anchored near the middle of the session’s range between 1.1455 and 1.1547.From a technical perspective, indicators present a slightly mixed bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, hinting at overbought territory and flashing a mild sell signal. However, the MACD remains firmly bullish, continuing to support upside momentum. The Ultimate Oscillator and Bull Bear Power both sit in neutral territory, offering no clear directional cue.The bullish case is strongly reinforced by moving averages. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) — at 1.1099, 1.0618, and 1.0762 respectively — are all trending upward. Short-term dynamics are also favorable, with the 10-day EMA and SMA positioned around 1.1325–1.1328, offering immediate support.
Daily chart
Daily chart
17:48 GBP/USD retreats from YTD high past 1.34 on Fed turmoil
The Pound Sterling reverses its course after reaching a daily high of 1.3423 due to concerns over the Federal Reserve (Fed) independence, spurred by US President Donald Trump's harsh comments against Fed Chair Jerome Powell. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.3383, up 0.17%.
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17:42 USD/CAD flattens around 1.3850 as US Dollar looks for firm-footing
The USD/CAD pair trades flat around 1.3850 during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The Loonie pair turns sideways after posting a fresh six-month low near 1.3800 as the US Dollar (USD) looks for a cushion after having a downside run in the last two weeks.
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17:20 Lagarde speech: Either we cut or pause but we will be data dependent to extreme
In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that they must be flexible and prepared to take action, per Reuters.
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In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that they must be flexible and prepared to take action, per Reuters.Key takeaways"I'm sure there is scope with negotiations with Trump.""Either we cut or pause but we will be data dependent to extreme.""Europe should lower internal trade barriers.""Tariff impact on growth is detrimental.""Disinflationary path is clearly on its way.""I don't think Europe has been unfair to US in trade.""Euro strength is counterintuitive."Market reactionEUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure following these comments. At the time of press, the pair was down 0.4% on the day at 1.1465. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
17:01 Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in at -16.7 below forecasts (-15.6) in April
Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in at -16.7 below forecasts (-15.6) in April
17:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index registered at -13, below expectations (-6) in April
United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index registered at -13, below expectations (-6) in April
16:55 USD/JPY Price Forecast: At make or a break around 140.00
The USD/JPY pair recovers some of its intraday losses but is still trading down near 140.65 during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The asset has demonstrated a sharp downside move in the last two weeks and revisited the 21-month low near 139.60.
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The asset has demonstrated a sharp downside move in the last two weeks and revisited the 21-month low near 139.60.The pair has remained weak as back-and-forth tariff announcements by United States (US) President Donald Trump and his tussle with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have dampened the credibility of the US Dollar.During North American trading hours, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, attracts some bids and rebounds to near 98.50 but is still close to the three-year low of 98.00.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has performed strongly as the global economic uncertainty due to an absence of clarity over Trump’s tariffs has improved its safe-haven appeal.Additionally, firm expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again this year have also strengthened the Yen. The BoJ is expected to continue supporting interest rate hikes, a report from Reuters indicated. The agency reported that higher risks from higher US tariffs won’t derail a cycle of rising wages and inflation seen as crucial to keep raising interest rates.USD/JPY trades at a make-or-break point near the psychological level of 140.00. The outlook of the pair is strongly bearish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping downwards, which trades around 144.80.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, indicating a strong downside momentum.The asset would face more downside towards the 28 July 2023 low of 138.00 and the 14 July 2023 low of 137.25 after sliding below the September 16 low of 139.58.On the flip side, a recovery move above the April 21 high of 142.15 will drive the asset towards the April 16 high of 143.28, followed by the April 9 low of 144.00.USD/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
16:31 EUR consolidates rally from February lows – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is softer, down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies along with Swiss Franc (CHF) and Australian Dollar (AUD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Euro (EUR) is softer, down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies along with Swiss Franc (CHF) and Australian Dollar (AUD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB sees US tariffs as disinflationary"The EUR’s modest weakness is likely just a pause following its impressive rally from recent lows just above parity. The market tone is mixed and muted overall, offering no clear thematic drivers." "Preliminary PMI’s are scheduled for release on Wednesday and are expected to show a continued contraction in manufacturing alongside a softening in services growth. Comments from ECB Gov. Council member Rehn were dovish, highlighting that US tariffs were a short-term headwind to euro area inflation." "EUR/USD looks to be settling into a short-lived period of consolidation following its impressive rally from its early February lows. Momentum signals are bullish and overbought, with an RSI around 74. We look to near-term support below 1.14 and anticipate resistance above 1.1550."
16:30 GBP/USD consolidates 10-day rally – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Tuesday’s American session flat against the US Dollar (USD) and showing signs of exhaustion following an astounding 10-session rally that culminated in Monday’s surge through 1.34, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Tuesday’s American session flat against the US Dollar (USD) and showing signs of exhaustion following an astounding 10-session rally that culminated in Monday’s surge through 1.34, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. BoE sees tariffs as disinflationary"There have been no domestic releases and comments from the BoE’s Greene highlighted the disinflationary risks posed by US tariffs. Wednesday’s PMI’s are expected to show softening services growth and continued contraction in manufacturing." "GBP/USD looks to be taking a pause following its impressive 10-session rally from 1.2700. Momentum is overbought with an RSI at 71 and the latest couple of candles are showing extended upper shadows, hinting to exhaustion. We see near-term resistance in the lower 1.34s and look to support in the upper 1.32s."
16:23 IMF cuts global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3.3%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced in its updated World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday that it cut the global growth projections to 2.8% in 2025 and to 3% in 2026 from 3.3% for both years in the previous forecast, citing century-high US tariffs.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced in its updated World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday that it cut the global growth projections to 2.8% in 2025 and to 3% in 2026 from 3.3% for both years in the previous forecast, citing century-high US tariffs.Key takeaways"Swift escalation of trade tensions and high uncertainty expected to have significant impact on growth in all regions.""Risks to global economy have increased and worsening trade tensions could further depress growth.""Financial conditions could tighten as markets react to lower growth prospects, markets may face more severe tests.""Global inflation expected to reach 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with notable upward revisions for advanced economies.""Intensifying downside risks dominate global outlook, escalating trade war could reduce near- and long-term growth.""Policy shifts and deteriorating sentiment could trigger further repricing of assets, sharp adjustments in forex rates.""Broader financial instability could occur, including damage to international monetary system.""US growth projected to slow to 1.8% in 2025, down 0.9 percentage point from January forecast, due to policy uncertainty, trade tensions.""IMF sees Mexico's economy among the hardest hit and forecasts it contracting by 0.3% in 2025, down from 1.4% growth forecast in January.""US faces significant uptick of one percentage point in headline inflation, not all due to tariffs.""Federal Reserve will have to be very vigilant on de-anchored inflation expectations, impact on wages.""Independence is key component of central banks' credibility on fighting inflation.""Not forecasting recession for US but risk of recession has increased to nearly 40%.""Depreciation of US Dollar has been orderly, not seeing dislocation in currency markets.""Restoring predictability to global trading system is absolutely critical to bolstering growth."Market reactionThe US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to the IMF's report and was last seen gaining 0.3% on the day at 98.60. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
16:11 JPY outperforming G10 currencies – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is up 0.4% against the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming most of the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is up 0.4% against the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming most of the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. JPY is well supported in broader recovery"JPY is up 0.4% vs. the USD and outperforming most of the G10 currencies, extending its recent gains to fresh local highs and threatening a confirmation of its reversal from multi-decade lows.""There have been no domestic releases but Bloomberg reported that while the BoJ expects tariffs to slow Japan’s economy and possibly delay progress towards its inflation target, it sees no need to change its basic stance of gradual rate hikes for now."
16:00 United States Redbook Index (YoY) up to 7.4% in April 18 from previous 6.6%
United States Redbook Index (YoY) up to 7.4% in April 18 from previous 6.6%
15:59 USD/CAD dips below 1.38 remain well-supported – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session so far, reflecting a somewhat mixed trend in the USD overall, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session so far, reflecting a somewhat mixed trend in the USD overall, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD little changed on the session"Longer-run developments remain somewhat CAD-positive. Much of the tariff bad news seems to be reflected in the CAD price at this point while the overall trend in the USD should translate into some moderate gains in the CAD at least. CFTC data show that investors have reduced some net short CAD exposure but a still significant net short remains in place." "Positioning and the CAD’s recent gains suggest that stranded CAD shorts will look to fade minor USD rebounds now and may be forced to square if the CAD improvement extends—which looks quite possible. Spot’s move below the 1.40 area likely signals the emergence of a new trading range of 1.37-1.40ish, with the floor of that band perhaps extending to 1.35 as the broader USD decline extends. We estimate fair value today at 1.3808." "Spot dipped briefly under 1.38 again today but, like yesterday, USD losses were not sustained. Short-term patterns suggest a minor low may be developing on the intraday charts. A push above 1.3850 may prompt a squeeze higher in the USD to the low 1.39 area. USD/CAD trend momentum remains bearish, however, with signals aligned across the short-, medium– and long-term studies. USD rebounds are likely to be shallow and short-lived. Support is 1.3780 and 1.13840."
15:54 USD steadies, undertone remains weak – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is consolidating. The major currencies are trading mixed overall as markets steady and take stock of developments after yesterday’s steep US equity declines.
The US Dollar (USD) is consolidating. The major currencies are trading mixed overall as markets steady and take stock of developments after yesterday’s steep US equity declines. Asian and European stocks are mixed to slightly softer and US equity futures are in the green, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD steadies, trades mixed on majors"Treasurys remain soft and are underperforming European government bonds by 2-3bps while gold touched another new high just above $3500. The USD sell-off has come a long way in a relatively short space of time which may allow for some short-term stabilization in the bear trend. But USD-negative drivers—concerns about Fed independence, no obvious tariff off ramp and weakening US economic prospects—may not be resolved soon enough to save the USD." "President Trump continues to talk positively about trade talks and how close some deals are to getting over the line. But reports have emerged from the US/Japan discussions which suggest that Japanese negotiators are frustrated by US counterparts constantly moving the goalposts, delaying progress. Recall that President Trump reportedly wants to be 'personally' involved in all trade negotiations. A quick resolution to the tariff uncertainty seems unlikely at this point." "While the USD looks a little steadier so far today, note that that USD/JPY traded briefly below 140 amid reports that the BoJ sees no need to alter its basic rate stance (of gradual rate hikes). The 139/140 zone represents major technical support for the USD and a sustained push below this range will, we think, signal a further and significant drop in the USD is unfolding. There are a number of Fed speakers on tap today and it’s hard not to believe that the issue of Fed independence will not come up at some point in the discussions."
15:31 Canada Raw Material Price Index registered at -1%, below expectations (0%) in March
Canada Raw Material Price Index registered at -1%, below expectations (0%) in March
15:30 Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in March
Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in March
15:10 ECB's Kazimir: Uncertainty is here to stay, driven by US trade policy
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Tuesday that he is confident that the 2% inflation target will be reached in the next few months, per Reuters.
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European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Tuesday that he is confident that the 2% inflation target will be reached in the next few months, per Reuters.Key takeaways"The ECB deposit rate now is in the neutral range.""Uncertainty is here to stay, driven by the US trade policy.""We have no pre-committed rate path, June decision will depend on data, risk assessment and forecasts."Market reactionThese comments failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction. At the time of press, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1475, losing 0.3% on the day. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
14:26 AUD/USD retraces to near 0.6400 as US Dollar strives to gain ground
The AUD/USD pair corrects slightly to near 0.6400 during European trading hours on Tuesday after posting a fresh four-month high at 0.6440 earlier in the day. The Aussie pair retraces as the US Dollar (USD) strives to gain ground after remaining in the downside trajectory in the last few weeks.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
13:54 US Dollar remains on the back foot after Trump lashes out at Powell
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades broadly flat on Tuesday near a three-year low, consolidating Monday’s losses.
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Markets brace for a slew of Fed speakers and Tesla earnings after the closing bell. The US Dollar Index remains below the 100.00 marker as Trump intensifies his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades broadly flat on Tuesday near a three-year low, consolidating Monday’s losses. Markets got caught by surprise as the US Dollar took a hit during Asian trading hours while European and US markets were trading on limited capacity due to the Easter Monday bank holiday. United States President Donald Trump has shifted his focus now to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lashed out at its Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him “a major loser" for not lowering interest rates while looking at ways to get rid of the Chairman, putting further downward pressure on the Greenback. On the economic calendar front, all eyes are on the leading Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) preliminary data for April on Wednesday and the Durable Goods orders on Thursday. For this Tuesday, a slew of Fed speakers are lined up to speak, while the less-important Richmond Fed Manufacturing data for April will also be published. In US equity markets, the focus will be on the Tesla (TSLA) earnings call after the US closing bell, when CEO Elon Musk could announce his departure date from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).Daily digest market movers: Fed speakers all around At 13:30 GMT, Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, participates in a seminar on economic development at the University of Pennsylvania, focusing on regional growth and financial inclusion.At 14:00 GMT, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech on "Economic mobility and the Dual Mandate" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia.The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April is due in that same time span, around 14:00 GMT. Expectations are for further contraction to -6, coming from -4 in the previous reading.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak around 17:40 GMT as he participates in a Q&A at the US Chamber of Commerce Global Summit in Washington DC. Closing remarks for this Tuesday around 22:00 GMT from Federal Reserve Bank Governor Adriana Kugler, who gives a speech on "Transmission of Monetary Policy" at the Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute 2025 Roundtable, Minneapolis.After the US closing bell, all eyes will shift to Tesla earnings. Rumors are that Tesla Chairman Elon Musk is set to announce in the call his departure date from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), NBC reports. Equities are looking for direction on Tuesday with minor losses in Europe while US equities are up 1% on average as they try to rebound from Monday’s losses. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May’s meeting at 10.4% against no changes at 89.6%. The June meeting is still having around 62% chances for a rate cut. The US 10-year yields trade around 4.41% after US bonds have been selling off quite substantially over the past few weeks. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Dipping its toeThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is saying goodbye to the 100.00 marker for now. Incurred losses from Monday are being consolidated this Tuesday while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is penetrating the oversold area. More downside could be rather limited from here as some sort of technical bounce looks likely before the DXY could drop another leg lower. On the upside, first resistance comes in at 99.58, which could trigger a firm rejection in any recovery attempts. Should Dollar bulls resurface, look for 100.22 with a break back above 100.00 as a bullish signal of their return. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90, which acted as head-and-shoulders base line since 2023.On the other hand, the low at 97.73 is very close by and could snap at any moment. Further below, a rather thin technical support comes in at 96.94, before starting to look at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, which would mean fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
13:42 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD wobbles below $33 as investors seek development in US-China trade
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades sideways around $32.50 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal has turned sideways over the last three trading days as investors look for fresh development in trade relations between the United States (US) and China.
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The white metal has turned sideways over the last three trading days as investors look for fresh development in trade relations between the United States (US) and China.In the second week of this month, US President Donald Trump announced a sudden 90-day pause in the execution of reciprocal tariffs but kept enormous duties on China for retaliation by imposing similar levies on imports from the US.Meanwhile, Washington has expressed optimism over the US-China trade deal. “We're confident it will work out with China,” US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said over the weekend.Still, investors are cautious over the US-China trade relations as the fight between Trump and China is more of a “dignity” issue than a "level of tariffs" issue. The scenario of a tussle between the US and China for the longer term will be favorable for safe-haven assets, such as Silver. Historically, precious metals perform strongly in times of heightened global economic tensions.Last week, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the President is open to a trade deal with Beijing, but it should make the first move. "The ball is in China’s court: China needs to make a deal with us, we don’t have to make a deal with them,” Leavitt said, Reuters reported.Meanwhile, the deepening feud between Donald Trump and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell over the interest rate policy has battered the US Dollar (USD) badly. Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a value bet for investors.Silver technical analysisSilver price trades back-and-forth in a range between $32.08 and $33.12 since Wednesday. The white metal turns sideways after a strong upside move since April 7. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.00 continues to provide support to the Silver price.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a volatility contraction.Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 111 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
13:18 USD/JPY: Stay short into Kato-Bessent meeting – OCBC
USD/JPY continues to trade with a heavy bias as broad USD softness persists. Pair was last at 140.34 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
USD/JPY continues to trade with a heavy bias as broad USD softness persists. Pair was last at 140.34 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bias remains skewed to the downside"Top trade negotiator Akazawa said there was no discussion on FX during trade talks last week but currency discussion between US Treasury secretary Bessent and Finance Minister Kato may still be possible this week when they meet (likely 23/24 Apr). Hence, some downward pressure on USD/JPY is more likely than not." "Bear in mind that Minister of Finance Kato had previously said that a weak JPY won’t be tolerated when the nation needs to hold trade talks with the US. Bias remains to stay short for USD/JPY into Kato-Bessent meeting later this week. If the talks lead to nothing conclusive about weakening the USD or strengthening the JPY, there may be risk of USD short covering post-meeting." "Daily momentum is bearish while RSI fell further into oversold conditions. Bias remains skewed to the downside. Support at 140 and 139.60 levels. Resistance at 141.60, 144.10 levels."
13:16 Gold: Another new high – OCBC
XAU/USD surged to another fresh highs as Trump doubled down on threats against Powell, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
XAU/USD surged to another fresh highs as Trump doubled down on threats against Powell, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bias remains bullish until it turns"Trump said in a social media post on Monday that 'there is virtually No Inflation', pointing to lower energy and food prices. 'But there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW', Trump said, referring to Powell.""We previously shared that firing Powell or interfering with the Fed not only undermines the principle of central bank independence, but also risks politicising the US monetary policy in a way that markets will find unsettling. If the credibility of the Fed (central bank independence) is called into question, it could erode confidence in the USD and accelerate the flow for safe haven gold." "XAU was last at 3465 levels. Momentum is bullish while RSI rose into overbought conditions. Bias remains bullish until it turns. Next resistance at 3500, 3600 levels. Support at 3420, 3350 levels."
13:13 DXY: Short covering Soon? – OCBC
Dollar Index (DXY) continued to trade near recent lows and was last seen trading at 98.44, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Dollar Index (DXY) continued to trade near recent lows and was last seen trading at 98.44, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Markets are questioning USD’s status as a reserve currency"Daily momentum is bearish, while RSI fell into oversold conditions. Support at 98, 97.65 levels. Resistance at 99.5, 100.10 and 101.20 levels. USD sell-off may seem stretched for now. Short USD is also a big consensus trade and that warrants some caution especially if there is any short covering. But more broadly, we keep our view of a softer USD." "Fundamentally, markets are questioning USD’s status as a reserve currency and a safe haven. Ongoing US protectionist measures, weakening of US exceptionalism and ballooning US debt are some catalysts that should keep the 'sell USD on rally' trade intact. We continue to expect USD to trade weaker against major FX, including EUR, CHF and JPY over the forecast horizon as the USD credibility issue takes centre-stage in the immediate term while Fed cut cycle comes into focus in 2H 2025." "USD may also trade softer against AxJs and antipodeans, but USD’s decline may be more modest than against major FX, as we take into consideration the potential implication of tariffs on global growth, which can have a bearing on pro-cyclical AxJ FX. Week brings US prelim PMIs, Fed’s beige book (Wed); durable goods orders, initial jobless claims (Thu). In Washington, G20 Finance Ministers and central bank governors will convene for a 2-day meeting on 23 – 24 Apr on the sidelines of the IMF, World Bank meetings."
13:13 US Vice President Vance: India and America have finalized terms of reference for a trade deal
US Vice President James David Vance announced on Tuesday that India and America have finalized the terms of reference for a trade deal.
US Vice President James David Vance announced on Tuesday that India and America have finalized the terms of reference for a trade deal.Additional quotesI believe that India and the US have much to offer one another.Our administration seeks trade partners on the basis of fairness.We have common goals with India.India and the US will co-produce many defence equipment items.India and the US both know the region must remain safe from any hostile powers.We want India to buy more of our military equipment.We want to help India explore offshore gas reserves and critical mineral supplies.India should consider dropping some of the non-tariff barriers for American access to the Indian market.I welcome India's budget amendment of nuclear liability laws.I believe America's energy can help realise India's nuclear goals.
13:09 BoE on track for May cut after disinflation surprise – Danske Bank
Prior to Easter, EUR/GBP rose on the soft inflation data for March only partly reversed since then on a dovish ECB, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.
Prior to Easter, EUR/GBP rose on the soft inflation data for March only partly reversed since then on a dovish ECB, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.Global risk aversion keeps pressure on GBP"UK inflation in March came in lower than expected across measures with headline at 2.6% y/y (cons: 2.7%, prior: 2.8%), core at 3.4% (cons: 3.4%, prior: 3.5%) and services at 4.7% (cons: 4.8%, prior: 5.0%). The print came in below the BoE's expectations across measures. The largest downward contribution came from recreation and culture as well as transport, while clothing provided the largest upward contribution." "There are though tentative signs that the disinflationary process is stalling in underlying measures. Key topside risks remain from rise in employer National Insurance Contributions, still strong wage growth and rising inflation expectations. More broadly with UK inflation surprising to the downside the past months we think the BoE is set to continue easing at a quarterly pace, delivering its next 25bp cut at the upcoming meeting in May." "For EUR/GBP, key remains the global investment environment where elevated volatility and uncertainty and widening credit spreads provide a sour cocktail for GBP. In the very near-term, we have a topside bias for the cross."
13:06 Gold uptrend accelerates, MACD hits multiyear high – Société Générale
Gold continues to push higher after defending its 50-day moving average, with no immediate signs of exhaustion.
Gold continues to push higher after defending its 50-day moving average, with no immediate signs of exhaustion. As technical momentum strengthens, key resistance levels lie ahead at $3515 and beyond, though the overbought backdrop suggests risks of short-term volatility remain, Société Générale's FX analysts note. The $3325 support in focus as bullish momentum builds "Gold defended the 50-DMA in last pullback attempt and has experienced acceleration in its uptrend. Daily MACD is registering multiyear high denoting a stretched uptrend in short-term. However, signals of a meaningful pullback are not yet visible.""Low achieved earlier this week at $3325 is near term support. Break below could denote possibility of a brief decline. Next projections are located at $3515/3550 and $3660."
13:05 BoC holds at 2.75%, highlights tariff risks – Danske Bank
Before the Easter break, the BoC held the policy rate at 2.75% as expected by markets and the majority of analysts, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.
Before the Easter break, the BoC held the policy rate at 2.75% as expected by markets and the majority of analysts, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. Market sees more cuts ahead despite policy pause "The BoC reiterated that monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and emphasized their mandate to keep inflation at 2% amid the threat of additional upward price pressure from tariffs. The MPR was naturally focused on tariffs, but instead of the usual single base-case projection, it presented two scenarios - one based on relatively normalised trade relations, and the other grounded in a protracted trade war.""The first scenario pencils in slightly weaker Canadian growth and inflation staying around the 2% target, while the gloomier case entails a Canadian recession and inflation temporarily creeping above 3% next year. The estimate for the neutral rate was unchanged from April 2024, remaining between 2.25% and 3.25%. Overall, the meeting was very tariff-oriented, as widely expected." "The market reaction was muted, with a knee-jerk reaction that saw USD/CAD ticking slightly lower. Looking ahead, markets are now pricing in 16bp worth of cuts compared to 10bp before the meeting, suggesting that this is not the BoC concluding the easing cycle, but rather taking a breather to assess the uncertainty related to tariffs, while prioritizing its inflation mandate."
13:02 USD/JPY tests key support near 139.50 – Société Générale
USD/JPY continues to slide after breaking below a flag-like channel, hitting last year’s low around 139.50/138.90.
USD/JPY continues to slide after breaking below a flag-like channel, hitting last year’s low around 139.50/138.90. With no clear signs of a rebound, the pair remains vulnerable to further losses toward key projections at 136.50 and 134.80 unless support holds, Société Générale's FX analysts note, Société Générale's FX analysts note. No signs of rebound as downtrend accelerates"USD/JPY has extended its phase of decline after breaking below a short-term ascending channel resembling a flag. It has reached last year low of 139.50/138.90. Signals of a meaningful rebound are not yet visible." "Last week high of 144.30 is near term resistance. Inability to defend 139.50 can result in persistence of decline. Next objectives could be located at projection of 136.50, which is also the lower limit of the channel drawn since last year (log scale) and 134.80."
12:59 EUR/USD breaks 1.15 on 'Sell America' momentum – Danske Bank
The US Dollar (USD) extended its decline as markets reacted to Trump's threats against Fed Chair Powell, worsening US asset market dynamics, and thin holiday liquidity. EUR/USD surged past 1.15, driven by ongoing risk aversion and safe-haven rotation away from the greenback.
The US Dollar (USD) extended its decline as markets reacted to Trump's threats against Fed Chair Powell, worsening US asset market dynamics, and thin holiday liquidity. EUR/USD surged past 1.15, driven by ongoing risk aversion and safe-haven rotation away from the greenback. With no obvious trigger for a reversal, sentiment remains broadly bearish on the USD, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. No clear catalyst for USD rebound"The USD extended its sell-off as the unusual confluence of falling US equities, higher long-end Treasury yields, and broad-based dollar weakness gained traction, following President Trump's remarks suggesting he might fire Fed Chair Powell." "Notably, the comments had limited impact on prediction markets, where the odds of Powell's removal in 2025 remain around 20%. Thinner holiday liquidity may have amplified the move. EUR/USD pushed above 1.15, with persistent 'sell America' momentum propelling the cross to its highest level since late 2021." "Looking ahead, it is hard to see a catalyst for a sustained USD rebound amid a deteriorating US growth outlook and growing dysfunction in US asset markets, which increasingly undermines the USD's safe-haven appeal."
12:39 EUR/USD holds onto gains as Trump assaults Fed’s autonomy
EUR/USD trades firmly around 1.1500 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair is taking a sigh of relief after a strong rally in the last few weeks.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD sticks to gains near 1.1500 as the US Dollar has been battered by Trump’s attack on the Fed’s independence.Trump blames Fed Powell for the potential US economic slowdown.The ECB is expected to cut interest rates in June due to escalating downside risks to Eurozone inflation.EUR/USD trades firmly around 1.1500 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair is taking a sigh of relief after a strong rally in the last few weeks. The pair seems to be gearing up for a fresh upward move as the US Dollar (USD) is expected to continue facing the burden of growing tensions between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and United States (US) President Donald Trump over the monetary policy.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, aims to find a cushion after refreshing a three-year low near 98.00.US President Trump continues to criticize Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates and warned that the economy could face a downturn if they are not reduced immediately. "With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," Trump wrote in a post on TruthSocial on Monday.Meanwhile, Jerome Powell has been supporting keeping interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% until it becomes clear whether inflation led by new economic policies is persistent or short-lived. US President Trump has also threatened to remove Powell over a year before the completion of his term for not lowering interest rates. It is still debatable whether Donald Trump can sack Powell, but the situation will remain the same as the decision on borrowing rates will be eventually taken by other Fed members, and none of them has spoken out about easing the monetary policy immediately.The signs of political interference in the operations of the Fed, which is an autonomous institution, have led to a steep decline in the safe-haven status of the US Dollar. Investors doubt the credibility of the US Dollar and US assets under the threat of Trump’s attack on the Fed’s independence.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains firm at US Dollar’s expenseEUR/USD clings to gains near 1.1500 at the expense of the US Dollar, whose safe-haven status has been questioned due to events of ever-changing tariff headlines by Donald Trump and his feud with Fed Powell. Trump announced a 90-day pause in executing reciprocal tariffs after getting responses from his trading partners to make a fair deal. However, the intact trade war between the US and China has kept the US Dollar on the backfoot.The impact of the intensified trade war between the world’s two largest powerhouses has battered the global economic outlook, including the US, given that American importers will bear the burden of higher tariffs, which they will pass on to consumers. Such a scenario will diminish households’ purchasing power significantly.During European trading hours, the Euro (EUR) trades cautiously as traders have become increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) could cut interest rates again in the June policy meeting. ECB dovish bets have swelled on increasing downside risks to Eurozone inflation amid fears of global economic turmoil.Analysts at Citi anticipated price growth of 1.6% next year and 1.8% in 2027 last week before the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday. These predictions came before the ECB’s monetary policy announcement, in which the central bank reduced its key borrowing rates for the seventh time in the current monetary easing cycle and guided a grim economic outlook.In the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that downside risks for the Eurozone economy have increased. Lagarde said that the economic outlook is "clouded by uncertainty" as trade disruptions would weigh on "business investment."Going forward, the next trigger for the Euro will be the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data of the Eurozone and its nations for April, which will be released on Wednesday.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD trades firmly near 1.1500EUR/USD grips gains near 1.1500 in Tuesday’s European session. The major currency pair strengthened after a breakout above the April 11 high of 1.1474. Advancing 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0850 suggests a strong upside trend.The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs to overbought levels around 75.00, which indicates a strong bullish momentum, but chances of some correction cannot be ruled out.Looking up, the round-level figure of 1.1600 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the July 2023 high of 1.1276 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
12:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $32.44 per troy ounce, down 0.74% from the $32.68 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have increased by 12.28% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 32.44 1 Gram 1.04
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 106.44 on Tuesday, up from 104.78 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 106.44 on Tuesday, up from 104.78 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:13 BoE’s Greene: Pricing partly reflects global factors
Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene said on Tuesday that “pricing partly reflects global factors.”
Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene said on Tuesday that “pricing partly reflects global factors.”Further commentsNot all market pricing focused on UK.I am more concerned about supply side.Exchange rates haven't gone as theory suggests.A falling dollar would be disinflationary for UK.Too early to say where the dust will settle on the US Dollar strength.There is no sign of shakeout in labour market yet.UK wage growth remains pretty high.Services points to inflation persistence.I am more worried about services inflation than wages.Tariffs are more of a disinflationary risk.Rise in inflation expectations worrisome.
12:08 Oil caught up in risk-off move – ING
Oil, though, was unable to escape the broader risk-off move in markets yesterday. ICE Brent settled 2.5% lower on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note
Oil, though, was unable to escape the broader risk-off move in markets yesterday. ICE Brent settled 2.5% lower on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson noteOil market sentiment is largely negative"A variety of factors put downward pressure on the market: persistent demand concerns amid tariff uncertainty; Trump’s pressure on the Fed; and progress in nuclear talks between the US and Iran.""While the flat price has come under renewed pressure, the prompt timespread has strengthened. It's trading close to US$1/bbl backwardation. This suggests that the spot market is still relatively tight. In addition, refinery margins have been relatively well supported despite growing demand concerns. Our balance shows a sizeable surplus in the final quarter of this year, while the forward curve only flips into contango from early next year.""However, positioning data still shows market sentiment is largely negative. Speculators sold 56,887 lots over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long of 98,951 lots. This is the smallest position since October. The bulk of the move was driven by longs liquidating."
12:04 CAD: Downside risks still prevail – Commerzbank
USD/CAD has fallen significantly in recent weeks. However, this was due to pronounced USD weakness rather than CAD strength. If the US dollar recovers, we are likely to see higher levels again.
USD/CAD has fallen significantly in recent weeks. However, this was due to pronounced USD weakness rather than CAD strength. If the US dollar recovers, we are likely to see higher levels again. In addition, the Canadian real economy continues to struggle and the threat of US tariffs has not yet been averted. CAD risks are only likely to slowly subside in the second half of the year, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. USD/CAD drops despite trade war fears"It was only a few weeks ago that we were talking about the threat of a full-blown North American trade war and US tariffs on Canadian goods. However, instead of heading towards 1.60, USD-CAD has fallen sharply in recent weeks and is now trading at levels not seen since the US election in early November. The lower USD/CAD levels have thus been almost entirely driven by the pronounced weakness of the USD.""Despite these developments, we see a higher probability of a return to higher USD/CAD levels. Our economists expect the Fed to be rather cautious with its rate cuts, despite the concerns about the real economy. If our US economists are right, both our assessment of the US real economy and the Fed should lead to a recovery in the US dollar in the coming weeks.""Given the risks from US trade policy and the weakening real economy, there is a risk that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will have to lower its policy rate into expansionary territory. In the best-case scenario, the BoC should have no problem keeping rates at this level for an extended period. In the much worse scenario, several rate cuts are likely this year."
12:00 Spain 9-Month Letras Auction: 1.919% vs previous 2.269%
Spain 9-Month Letras Auction: 1.919% vs previous 2.269%
12:00 Spain 3-Month Letras Auction down to 2.1% from previous 2.359%
Spain 3-Month Letras Auction down to 2.1% from previous 2.359%
11:59 USD/CAD maintains losses near 1.3800, six-month lows due to higher Oil prices
USD/CAD continues to slide for the second consecutive day, trading near 1.3810 during Tuesday’s European session. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains traction, buoyed by a rebound in crude Oil prices and broader macroeconomic factors.
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The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains traction, buoyed by a rebound in crude Oil prices and broader macroeconomic factors.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price has bounced back from Monday’s sell-off, trading around $63.30 per barrel as investors covered short positions. Adding to the upside, China’s 90% cut in US Oil imports has shifted over a quarter of its seaborne demand to Canadian supply via the new Alberta–Vancouver pipeline, boosting export revenues and bolstering the CAD.Meanwhile, markets continue to digest the Bank of Canada's (BoC) recent decision to hold its policy rate at 2.75%. The central bank cited an uncertain US tariff outlook, highlighting that stable growth with near-target inflation remains possible, but escalating tariffs could trigger recessionary pressures and rising inflation in Canada.Political developments are also in focus as Canada enters the final stretch of its federal election campaign. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s promises of tax cuts and increased infrastructure and defense spending have introduced additional fiscal uncertainty.The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure, weighed down by heightened political and economic uncertainty in the United States. Investor sentiment is fragile amid a prolonged global trade impasse, especially as China pushes back against President Trump’s tariff strategies. Concerns escalated further following Trump’s proposal to investigate critical mineral imports, raising fears of slower US growth and inflationary risks. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
11:57 TRY: Re-establishing credibility is always difficult – Commerzbank
Last Thursday, Turkey's central bank (CBT) surprised markets by raising its main policy rate from 42.5% to 46.0%. Simultaneously, it increased the overnight lending rate to 49%, and the overnight borrowing rate to 44.5%.
Last Thursday, Turkey's central bank (CBT) surprised markets by raising its main policy rate from 42.5% to 46.0%. Simultaneously, it increased the overnight lending rate to 49%, and the overnight borrowing rate to 44.5%. Prior to this, we had imagined that CBT would try to avoid hiking the main rate (in an effort not to irk President Tayyip Erdogan) and that this was probably the reason why CBT had resorted to re-starting the use of its infamous ‘rate corridor’ after volatility broke out in the wake of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu’s detention. But Thursday’s decisive rate hike by CBT put to rest such concerns and bolstered the credibility of the economic policy team, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. Lira recovers briefly as market watches"The Turkish lira initially rallied back towards its pre-existing 38.0 “line of defence” versus the US dollar. As we see in the chart below, the pattern of intra-day movements changed when policymakers no longer had to defend the exchange rate using interventions. The vertical line in the chart separates the pre-announcement period from the time elapsed since the rate hike – we can easily see the change in pattern of fluctuations from a completely managed (flat) exchange rate line to a freer floating one; one might presume that less active interventions were being required when the exchange rate was able to appreciate of its own accord. Of course, things are reversing, once again, and what will happen in future remains to be seen: one might presume that FX interventions will kick back in soon.""Why is USD/TRY drifting up again? The answer is not obvious. The FX market is skeptical of something. One thing is obvious to us: the level of interest rate does not really matter at this point. When CBT started using the rate corridor again, we had written that it would make no difference whether the overnight lending rate were set at 46% or 50% or 60%. It was still an unmitigated disaster that the complex corridor system had been re-invoked. We are now also learning that the market’s perception of CB credibility is a precious commodity and takes time to rebuild. Any flip-flopping within this re-building phase does double damage.""How CBT’s credibility will develop in the eyes of the FX market, going forward, remains to be seen. It will depend crucially on how long interest rates can be kept high and how willing policymakers will be to embrace the economic soft patch which will be required to permanently bring inflation down. Unfortunately for CBT, developments of the past quarter were not encouraging: CBT was becoming more complacent, and rates were being cut too fast. When no margin of insurance was left, we now see the inevitable result in the abrupt U-turn which had to be made. We expect that USD/TRY will drift up gradually over the coming quarter pending more show of long-term cautiousness by policymakers."
11:52 Gold price up over 10% in April, hits $3,500 on Fed spat turmoil
Gold price (XAU/USD) shows no signs of fatigue and extends its rally higher yet again, hitting another record high at $3,500 in early Asian trading on Tuesday.
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US President Trump issued harsh rhetoric against Fed Chairman Powell on his rate policy. Markets are unstable due to equity earnings season uncertainty and the US political crackdown on the Fed. Gold price (XAU/USD) shows no signs of fatigue and extends its rally higher yet again, hitting another record high at $3,500 in early Asian trading on Tuesday. However, price action is cooling off a bit, and Gold dips back to around $3,460 at the time of writing due to some profit taking at the psychological level. Several markets across the globe are returning to normal trading regimes after the holiday-infused Easter price action, with Good Friday and Easter Monday seeing reduced trading volumes due to bank holidays. This week’s rally is being fueled by mounting uncertainty and pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its Chairman Jerome Powell. United States (US) President Donald Trump has been blaming the Fed and its Chairman for the still-elevated interest rates. Trump accused Fed Chairman Powell of lowering rates during Joe Biden’s presidency and said to be looking at any means or possibilities to have the Chairman replaced by Trump’s pick to get US rates slashed quickly. Daily digest market movers: Jefferies issues guidanceUS President Trump’s call on the Fed to cut interest rates immediately is seen by several traders and market participants as a threat to the central bank’s independence that drove the US Dollar to its lowest since 2022 in the US Dollar Index (DXY), Bloomberg reports. Gold may be “the only true safe-haven asset left” as investors question US assets, including Treasuries, according to Jefferies. “With the recent selloff in US Treasuries, and a view that Treasuries are inextricably tied to tariffs, a trade war with China, and the US fiscal situation, we believe gold is the only true safe-haven asset left,” Jefferies analysts said in a note on Tuesday, Reuters reports. Ahead of quarterly earnings, and based on fundamentals, Jefferies highlighted as preferred picks Endeavour Mining Plc among seniors, and Dundee Precious Metals Inc. among non-seniors, Bloomberg reports. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Gold rally to consolidate gains againThe precious metal is heated, maybe overheated, after hitting a fresh all-time high yet again in April. As if the trade war uncertainties and domestic political spats in the US were not enough to fuel the Bullion rally, the fact that the US President is willing to pick a fight with the Fed and is looking for ways to have its credible Chairman removed from office is probably the final straw for markets. The intraday R2 resistance at $3,494 has already been tested, and Gold has hit a fresh all-time high at $3,500 on Tuesday before correcting slightly lower. This makes these levels a double resistance zone from now on. Should the Gold price close above the R1 resistance at $3,447 on a daily basis, more all-time highs and gains for April could still occur. On the downside, the daily Pivot Point comes in at $3,395, though that looks bleak with no real technical support nearby. Instead, the S1 support at $3,360, which roughly coincides with the April 17 high, is a more logical support to look at. In case that level breaks, look for the S2 support at $3,296 and the April 11 high at $ 3,245 on the downside. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
11:50 JPY: Strong position – ING
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is the biggest winner in this latest round of USD selling, as it responds to both the equity slump and the risks of the Fed’s independence.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is the biggest winner in this latest round of USD selling, as it responds to both the equity slump and the risks of the Fed’s independence. USD/JPY has dropped below the 140.0 mark and given the broad attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven substitute, we don’t see the conditions for an immediate reversal of the move, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notesUSD/JPY can aim at the 135.0 mark"If anything, the yen stands to benefit a bit more than the euro from USD outflows, thanks to a stronger domestic picture. Even if it’s been reported that the Bank of Japan should keep rates on hold on 1 May and cut inflation forecasts on a stronger yen, data should still argue for the gradual tightening guidance to remain in place.""Tokyo CPI figures for April are expected to show a major jump on Friday. Incidentally, it’s been reported that Japan’s ruling party is planning an emergency proposal of domestic support to counter the tariff impact.""Finally – and quite importantly – Japan has moved earlier than most other countries in negotiating with the US on a trade deal. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato will meet with Scott Bessent this week and said currencies will be a key aspect of the discussion. If the Trump administration includes JPY strengthening as a condition for a trade deal, we could easily see USD/JPY aim at the 135.0 mark."
11:50 GBP/JPY: Pound Sterling cross rates mixed at the start of the European session
Pound Sterling (GBP) crosses trade mixed at the start of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Pound Sterling (GBP) to the Japanese Yen changes hands at 188.02, with the GBP/JPY pair declining from its previous close at 188.44.
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Pound Sterling (GBP) crosses trade mixed at the start of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Pound Sterling (GBP) to the Japanese Yen changes hands at 188.02, with the GBP/JPY pair declining from its previous close at 188.44.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 1.8482 against the CAD in the early European trading hours after the GBP/CAD pair settled the previous day’s at 1.8518. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
11:48 JPY: Strength mainly vs. the USD – Commerzbank
The Japanese yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar over the holiday weekend, with the USD/JPY approaching 140 this morning.
The Japanese yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar over the holiday weekend, with the USD/JPY approaching 140 this morning. Once again, it is tempting to think that this is mainly due to the Japanese yen and that either Friday's inflation figures or today's comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might have something to do with it, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. BoJ holds course amid food-driven inflation"Neither Friday's inflation figures nor the BoJ's comments are really new. Inflation remains above 3%. And if you exclude fresh food and energy - the key measure used by the BoJ - it is still 2.8%. However, this is still mainly due to inflation in other food, which rose again to 6.2% in March. Food, in particular, accounts for a very high share of the CPI basket, around 26%, and can therefore have a strong impact on the inflation rate. However, the extent to which monetary policy can influence rice prices (up 92% year-on-year in March) remains questionable.""And it should come as no surprise that the BoJ is maintaining its intention to raise interest rates if the economy performs as expected. The crux of the matter, however, is whether the economy will perform as expected in the face of US tariffs. And again, the BoJ says that risks have increased and that the data needs to be monitored.""Finally, it should be noted that although the JPY gained 1.6% against the US Dollar over the long weekend, the US Dollar also lost around 1.3% on a trade-weighted basis. So the move was mainly driven by the weakness of the USD. And since we have to assume that the US dollar will remain a politically driven currency for the time being, the following should be kept in mind regarding the Japanese yen: Although the JPY has gained around 13% against the US Dollar since 8 January, it has only gained just under 1% against the EUR over the same period."
11:43 USD: Confidence crisis extends – ING
US Dollar (USD) losses of the past few weeks have been a combination of mounting US growth concerns and a loss of confidence in the dollar as a safe haven. The round of USD weakness seen on Easter Monday belongs to both trends.
US Dollar (USD) losses of the past few weeks have been a combination of mounting US growth concerns and a loss of confidence in the dollar as a safe haven. The round of USD weakness seen on Easter Monday belongs to both trends. President Trump is intensifying pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates 'now', threatening one of the foundations of the dollar’s appeal as a global reserve currency: an independent and inflation-responsible central bank. At the same time, many are speculating that Trump is looking to blame the Fed for the upcoming economic slowdown, which is a de facto admission by the administration that it is sharing the market’s recessionary fears, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notesTrump threatens dollar's safe-haven status"There is a good chance Trump won’t (or won’t be able to) take any drastic measures, and Powell will stand his ground on keeping rates on hold until the tariff impact starts to show. It is equally likely that Trump will continue to intensify pressure to cut rates, considering the broad consensus for upcoming soft activity data. Let’s see what kind of pushback Fed members offer this week; for now, the OIS curve continues to price in close to zero chances of a cut in May.""The reaction to Trump’s comments on the Fed indicates how sensitive markets are to the topic of Fed independence, and we believe this adds a new layer of bearish bias on the dollar. At the same time, we must acknowledge how oversold and undervalued the dollar is, and the possibility that yesterday’s drop was exacerbated by thinner liquidity. If the downside risks for the USD remain significant, the argument for stabilisation this week is quite persuasive.""What seems quite likely is that FX volatility will remain elevated, even though the US data calendar is pretty light this week. The Richmond Fed manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing indices are the highlight today, although tomorrow’s S&P Global PMIs should have the largest market impact."
11:38 Dollar weakness due to threat to Fed independence – ING
The US president's attacks on Fed Chair Jay Powell are intensifying. And the dollar is weakening accordingly. The President of the United States is not well versed in conventional forms of politeness. We also know that he prefers a loose monetary policy.
The US president's attacks on Fed Chair Jay Powell are intensifying. And the dollar is weakening accordingly. The President of the United States is not well versed in conventional forms of politeness. We also know that he prefers a loose monetary policy. Don't be confused by the smokescreens put up by his economic advisor Kevin Hassett: Of course, this preference is neither new nor unique. What is new and unique, however, is that the US President really might fire Chair Powell, unlike during his first term in office. Hassett has confirmed that the White House is considering this, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Fed independence under fire"Because such a move would obviously not be taken because of any misconduct on Powell's part, but would be motivated by the President's dissatisfaction with the Fed's monetary policy, it would spell the end of the US central bank's independence. Monetary policy could then only be conducted in a way that suits the man in the White House.""I can guess what many of our readers are asking at this point: How much further can the US dollar weaken? We recently announced 1.15 as our target for the EUR-USD exchange rate (the measure that is the relevant benchmark for dollar weakness or strength for the majority of our readers). This is roughly the level at which EUR-USD is currently trading. Admittedly, we expected 1.15 for a later date." "That option is no longer available. If the FOMC actually lowers the key interest rate corridor on May 7, it must expect this to be interpreted as a clear signal that it is bowing to political pressure. The damage would be immense and lasting. It must now respond 'with a bang' – even though FOMC members must realize that the US president is also unlikely to back down. In short, because the de-escalation scenario seems implausible, the danger for the US dollar is so acute."
11:30 WTI rises to near $63.50 due to covering short positions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around $63.30 per barrel during the European hours on Tuesday. The uptick in crude Oil prices came as investors took advantage of Monday’s sharp sell-off to cover short positions.
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The uptick in crude Oil prices came as investors took advantage of Monday’s sharp sell-off to cover short positions.According to Reuters, Hiroyuki Kikukawa, Chief Strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, commented, “Some short-covering emerged after Monday’s sharp sell-off.” Hiroyuki also noted that lingering concerns over a potential recession, driven by ongoing trade tensions, are likely to keep the WTI price within the $55–$65 range for now.On Monday, US President Donald Trump reiterated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, warning that the US economy could slow unless interest rates are cut immediately. His remarks stoked concerns about the Fed’s independence and added to uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy.“The increasing unpredictability of US monetary policy is expected to weigh on financial markets and the broader economy, raising fears of declining crude oil demand,” analysts noted. A Reuters poll conducted on April 17 indicated that investors now see a nearly 50% chance of a US recession within the next 12 months, driven largely by the impact of current tariff policies.Meanwhile, developments in US-Iran relations could further pressure oil prices. Over the weekend, both nations agreed to begin drafting a framework for a potential nuclear deal. Any breakthrough could ease supply concerns, as Iran remains a key Oil producer. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
11:28 Gold surges to fresh record high – ING
Gold surged to new record highs as President Trump threatened to fire US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, sparking a flight to safe-haven assets, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Gold surged to new record highs as President Trump threatened to fire US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, sparking a flight to safe-haven assets, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.COMEX Gold inventories continue to trend lower"Spot Gold settled more than 2.9% higher yesterday. The strength has continued in early morning trading today, with prices briefly breaking above US$3,440/oz. This comes as Trump ratchets up pressure on Powell to ease monetary policy, raising concerns about Fed independence. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings in Gold are at their highest levels since September 2023." "In US dollar terms, though, this position is at a record high, given the strength in prices. Spot Gold is up more than 30% so far this year, making it the best-performing commodity. Meanwhile, COMEX Gold inventories continue to trend lower, falling by almost 2moz since early April to a little under 43.1moz." "This decline comes as the arb into New York turns negative at times following news that Gold is exempt from tariffs."
11:27 EUR/GBP today: Euro cross rates mixed at the start of the European session
Euro (EUR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Euro (EUR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Pound Sterling changes hands at 0.8594, with the EUR/GBP almost at its previous close at 0.8604.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades at 161.42 against the JPY in the early European trading hours, declining after the EUR/JPY pair settled at 162.19 at the previous close. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades at 161.42 against the JPY in the early European trading hours, declining after the EUR/JPY pair settled at 162.19 at the previous close. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
11:23 EUR: 1.20 discussion now open – ING
The latest round of dollar depreciation has sent EUR/USD through the 1.150 level. Now, there isn’t any other key resistance until 1.20. Picking a top in the pair has proven a frustrating exercise, and Trump’s attack on the Fed is likely extending the confidence crisis on the dollar.
The latest round of dollar depreciation has sent EUR/USD through the 1.150 level. Now, there isn’t any other key resistance until 1.20. Picking a top in the pair has proven a frustrating exercise, and Trump’s attack on the Fed is likely extending the confidence crisis on the dollar. It is evident that the euro's fundamental impact on another significant EUR/USD rally would be minimal, as it would primarily benefit from liquidity-seeking flows departing USD assets due to its reserve value. In other words, a move to 1.20 would be driven entirely by USD factors, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Move to 1.20 to be driven entirely by USD factors"Our latest forecasts are significantly more conservative on EUR/USD, as we see 1.13 as a more likely value for the end of this quarter. Nevertheless, we have often admitted ample room for short-term volatility, and the risks remain markedly skewed to further deviations on the upside for EUR/USD. If the Fed caves to Trump’s pressure and cuts rates, the damage to the dollar might be enough to take EUR/USD to 1.20.""We would however see that more as the top of the dollar’s confidence crisis rather than a new normal for the pair. After all, the euro retains the negatives of a dovish ECB, which we think will cut twice more this year, and we aren’t major subscribers to the view that the dollar has irremediably lost its reserve value. For now, our base case is that the EUR/USD rally will fall short of 1.20 and the short-term balance may sit around 1.14-1.15 even accounting for a sticky risk premium on the dollar.""The eurozone calendar includes PMI and Ifo surveys this week, alongside the ECB wage tracker. There is also a plethora of ECB scheduled speakers, who will fine-tune last week’s dovish message. President Christine Lagarde speaks on CNBC at 15.00 London time today."
11:11 ECB survey: Inflation seen a tad higher at 2.2% in 2025
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters showed on Tuesday that inflation in the Eurozone is seen a tad higher at 2.2% this year, compared to the 2.1% forecast seen three months ago.
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The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters showed on Tuesday that inflation in the Eurozone is seen a tad higher at 2.2% this year, compared to the 2.1% forecast seen three months ago.Key takeawaysInflation is seen at 2.2% in 2025 vs 2.1% seen 3 months ago.2026 inflation forecast at 2.0% vs 1.9% previous.Growth seen at 0.9% in 2025 vs 1.0% in previous forecast.Market reactionEUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.1500, down 0.10% on the day. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
11:04 Forex Today: There is no stopping of Gold as Fed independence comes into question
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 22:
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Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 22:Gold continues to shine as the go-to safe-haven asset as markets grow increasingly concerned about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence and an economic downturn because of President Donald Trump's new trade regime. The European Commission will publish preliminary Consumer Confidence data for April later in the day. The US economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases but investors will keep a close eye on comments from Fed policymakers. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.00% -0.65% -1.36% -0.29% -0.61% -1.37% -0.91% EUR 1.00% 0.20% -0.39% 0.68% 0.20% -0.41% 0.08% GBP 0.65% -0.20% -0.39% 0.49% -0.00% -0.59% -0.13% JPY 1.36% 0.39% 0.39% 1.09% 0.63% 0.10% 0.49% CAD 0.29% -0.68% -0.49% -1.09% -0.45% -1.09% -0.61% AUD 0.61% -0.20% 0.00% -0.63% 0.45% -0.59% -0.13% NZD 1.37% 0.41% 0.59% -0.10% 1.09% 0.59% 0.50% CHF 0.91% -0.08% 0.13% -0.49% 0.61% 0.13% -0.50% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In a social media post published on Monday, Trump accused Fed Chairman Jerome Powell of lowering interest rates in late 2024 for political reasons and called him "Mr. Too Late.""Preemptive cuts in interest rates are being called for by many. With energy costs way down, food prices (including Biden’s egg disaster!) substantially lower, and most other 'things' trending down, there is virtually no inflation," Trump said on Truth social and added:"With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a slowing of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, now. Europe has already 'lowered' seven times."The US Dollar (USD) Index fell about 1% on Monday and Wall Street's main indexes lost over 2%. Early Tuesday, the USD Index holds steady below 98.50, while US stock index futures trade in positive territory.After gaining nearly 3% on Monday, Gold extended its rally and set a new record high at $3,500 before correcting lower. At the time of press, XAU/USD was trading at around $3,470, rising more than 1% on a daily basis.EUR/USD benefited from the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the USD and touched a multi-year high above 1.1570 on Monday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.1500 in the European session on Tuesday.GBP/USD posted gains for the tenth consecutive trading day on Monday and set a new 2025-high above 1.3400. The pair stays relatively quiet in the European session on Tuesday and fluctuates in a narrow channel at around 1.3380.In its quarterly review of regional economic conditions across the country, the Japanese government maintained its overall economic assessment but warned of increasing downside risks due to US trade policies. After losing nearly 1% on Monday, USD/JPY continues to push lower toward 140.00 and trades at its lowest level since September. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
10:57 EUR/INR: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 97.74, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 98.10.
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Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 97.74, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 98.10.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 113.80 against the INR in the early European trading hours, also losing ground after the GBP/INR pair settled at 113.93 at the previous close. Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee? The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee? India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee? Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee? India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
10:51 AUD/JPY falls to near 90.00 as safe-haven demand boosts Japanese Yen
AUD/JPY continues to decline for a third consecutive session, hovering near 90.10 during European trading hours on Tuesday. Persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical tensions are bolstering demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen (JPY), pressuring the cross lower.
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Persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical tensions are bolstering demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen (JPY), pressuring the cross lower. Additionally, growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may hike interest rates again in 2025 are lending further support to the JPY.Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa echoed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s position on Tuesday, emphasizing that agriculture will not be compromised to shield the auto industry in ongoing US tariff talks. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato is set to visit Washington later this week to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for discussions on currency policy.In its quarterly report on regional economic conditions, the Japanese government maintained its overall outlook but flagged rising downside risks linked to US trade policy, according to Xinhua News Agency.However, downside momentum in AUD/JPY may be limited as the Australian Dollar (AUD) garners support amid headwinds for the US Dollar (USD). Investor sentiment toward US assets has weakened following renewed criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence.White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Friday that Trump is exploring whether he can dismiss Powell, while Trump warned on Truth Social that economic growth could stall unless interest rates are cut. Market sentiment remains fragile as global trade negotiations remain at an impasse. China's firm stance in response to Trump’s aggressive tariff measures continues to weigh on investor confidence. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
10:48 Pound Sterling gains against US Dollar as Trump blames Fed for potential economic slowdown
The Pound Sterling (GBP) shows strength near its three-year high around 1.3425 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European session.
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The GBP/USD pair is expected to see more upside as the USD continues to bleed due to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s attack on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence for not reducing interest rates.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, looks for temporary support after printing a fresh three-year low near 98.00.On Monday, US President Trump slammed Fed Chair Jerome Powell again for supporting a “wait and see” approach on interest rates and warned that the economy could face shockwaves if the monetary policy is not eased. “There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW,” Trump said through a post on TruthSocial.Last week, Donald Trump threatened to sack Jerome Powell for maintaining a restrictive stance on the monetary policy outlook. Trump said, "I am not happy with him. If I want him out of there, he’ll be out real fast, believe me." Financial market participants saw the event as an attack on the “autonomous” status of the Fed, whose decisions may not be influenced by political operations.This led to investors reassessing the safe-haven status of the US Dollar, which had already been vulnerable due to ever-changing tariff policies by Donald Trump. His decision to impose worse-than-expected reciprocal tariffs and a sudden announcement of a 90-day pause on the same forced traders to doubt the credibility of Trump’s policy objectives, weighing on the US Dollar and US assets.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling shows mixed performance ahead of flash PMI dataThe Pound Sterling demonstrates a mixed performance against its major peers on Tuesday as investors are cautious over how the Bank of England (BoE) will shape the monetary policy outlook under the threat of Trump’s international policies.Traders have become increasingly confident that the BoE could cut interest rates in the May policy meeting amid ongoing global economic tensions. There is a great chance that the UK will have a trade deal with Washington after Trump's administration imposed 10% reciprocal tariffs and 25% levies on steel and foreign cars. However, the major threat to the UK is intense competition with other nations, assuming that Trump’s protectionist policies will force his trading partners to sell their products in other territories at lower prices.In the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) in April, the BoE warned that a major shift in “global trading arrangements” could harm “financial stability by depressing growth”.Additionally, cooler-than-expected UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March also adds to expectations that the BoE could reduce borrowing rates in May. Inflation in the services sector, which is closely tracked by BoE officials, grew moderately by 4.7% against a 5% increase seen in February.This week, investors will focus on the release of the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April and the UK Retail Sales data for March, which will be published on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling rises to near 1.3400The Pound Sterling revisits the three-year high slightly above 1.3400 against the US Dollar on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair could witness more upside as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches overbought levels above 70.00. This indicates a strong bullish momentum, but investors should be prepared for some correction ahead.On the upside, the psychological level of 1.3500 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:23 NZD/USD maintains position above 0.6000 near five-month highs due to US uncertainty
NZD/USD extends its winning streak from April 9, trading near the 0.6000 level during early European hours on Tuesday. The pair continues to gain as the US Dollar (USD) weakens under the weight of growing economic and political uncertainty in the United States.
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The pair continues to gain as the US Dollar (USD) weakens under the weight of growing economic and political uncertainty in the United States.Investor sentiment remains fragile, shaken by the prolonged deadlock in global trade negotiations, particularly as China pushes back against President Trump's tariff measures. Market concerns deepened after Trump proposed an investigation into critical mineral imports, stoking fears of slower US economic growth and rising inflation.Adding to the unease, Trump’s renewed criticism of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell has reignited concerns over the Fed’s independence. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett disclosed that Trump is exploring whether he has the authority to remove Powell. In a Truth Social post, Trump warned that without swift rate cuts from the Fed, the US economy could face a significant slowdown.Investor confidence also took a hit as the White House escalated trade tensions further, imposing tariffs on Chinese ships docking at US ports, risking disruptions to global shipping routes. China, a key trading partner for New Zealand, has shown no signs of backing down, maintaining a firm stance in the ongoing trade spat.Despite recent gains, the NZD may encounter headwinds ahead. Markets are still fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in May, with expectations for the Official Cash Rate to fall from 3.5% to 2.75% by year-end.On the economic front, New Zealand’s March trade data showed a robust performance, with exports rising 19% year-on-year and imports climbing 12%. This resulted in a trade surplus of NZD 970 million—the highest since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
10:19 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,494.07 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,372.77 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 110,737.70 per tola from INR 109,322.20 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,494.07 10 Grams 94,942.71 Tola 110,737.70 Troy Ounce 295,286.80
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price might continue to draw support from rising trade tensions, bearish USD The uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs and their impact on the global economy continues to push the safe-haven Gold price to fresh record highs on Tuesday. Moreover, Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies, along with a call to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, keeps investors on the edge and further benefits the commodity. Trump accused Powell of not moving fast enough to bring down interest rates. Furthermore, Trump and his team are studying whether they can oust Powell before the end of his term. This raises doubts over the Fed's monetary policy independence, which, along with bets that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle, continues to weigh on the US Dollar. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in June and deliver at least three rate reductions in 2025. On the geopolitical front, Russian forces had launched 96 drones and three missiles into eastern and southern Ukraine after the 30-hour short-lived and partially observed Easter ceasefire. Traders now look forward to the release of the Richmond Manufacturing Index from the US, which, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand. The focus, however, will remain on the flash PMIs on Wednesday, which would offer fresh insight into the global economic health and provide some meaningful impetus to the XAU/USD pair. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
10:16 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $947.04 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $932.87.
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $947.04 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $932.87.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $971.53 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also up after the XPT/USD pair settled at $968.80 at the previous close.
10:00 Turkey Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 85.9 to 83.9 in April
Turkey Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 85.9 to 83.9 in April
09:57 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Remains under pressure near 98.00, oversold RSI condition eyed
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, extends its downside to near 98.15, the lowest since March 2022. The USD weakens across the board as fears over the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) intensified.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
09:51 EUR/GBP moves below 0.8600, retreats due to optimism surrounding US-UK trade negotiations
EUR/GBP loses ground after two days of gains, trading around 0.8600 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is gaining traction, supported by optimism surrounding ongoing US-UK trade negotiations.
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The Pound Sterling (GBP) is gaining traction, supported by optimism surrounding ongoing US-UK trade negotiations. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is pushing to finalize a trade deal with the US following President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs—10% on UK goods and 25% on automobile, steel, and aluminum imports.However, the EUR/GBP cross received support after softer-than-expected UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March increased expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut at the May policy meeting. Heightened global uncertainty is also contributing to dovish expectations.According to LSEG data, markets are now pricing in 86 basis points of BoE rate cuts by year-end, with a better-than-even chance of a fourth cut in December. Weaker inflation may give the central bank more room to support the economy amid rising household costs and persistent global trade tensions, potentially weighing on GBP performance.On the Euro side, downside pressure on the EUR/GBP cross is limited as the Euro (EUR) gains ground, buoyed by broad-based US dollar weakness. Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence have resurfaced after comments from President Trump and National Economic Council Director, who indicated that Trump is still “studying” whether to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell.The Euro is also drawing strength from rising expectations of increased defense spending across the Eurozone, particularly in Germany. On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%—the lowest level since early 2023—and dropped language describing its stance as “restrictive.” The ECB acknowledged a deteriorating economic outlook due to rising trade tensions, and markets are now pricing in three additional 25bps cuts by year-end. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
09:42 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.78 per barrel, up from Monday’s close at $62.63.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $65.74 price posted on Monday, and trading at $65.94.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.78 per barrel, up from Monday’s close at $62.63.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $65.74 price posted on Monday, and trading at $65.94. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $65.74 price posted on Monday, and trading at $65.94. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
08:47 Japan's government maintains economic assessment despite US trade policy risks
In its quarterly review of regional economic conditions across the country, the Japanese government maintained its overall economic assessment, warning of increasing downside risks due to US trade policies, per Xinhua News Agency.
In its quarterly review of regional economic conditions across the country, the Japanese government maintained its overall economic assessment, warning of increasing downside risks due to US trade policies, per Xinhua News Agency.more to come ....
08:25 GBP/JPY slides to three-day low, below 188.00 mark amid broadly stronger JPY
The GBP/JPY cross meets with fresh supply following an Asian session uptick to the 188.75 region and turns negative for the second consecutive day on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/JPY attracts sellers for the second straight day as safe-haven demand boosts the JPY.The divergent BoJ-BoE policy expectations exert additional downward pressure on spot pricesA bearish USD lends some support to the GBP and might help limit further losses for the cross.The GBP/JPY cross meets with fresh supply following an Asian session uptick to the 188.75 region and turns negative for the second consecutive day on Tuesday. Spot prices slide back below the 188.00 mark, hitting a three-day low in the last hour, and seem vulnerable to weaken further amid sustained buying around the Japanese Yen (JPY).Investors remained on edge amid persistent uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs and worries that the erratic trade war would push the global economy into a recession. Adding to this hopes for a US-Japan trade deal and bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates underpin the safe-haven JPY, which, in turn, is seen exerting downward pressure on the GBP/JPY cross. The BoJ is reportedly planning to signal next week that there is almost no need to change its basic stance on raising interest rates as the potential impact of increased US tariffs will not disrupt the ongoing cycle of wage growth and inflation. This comes on top of government data released last Friday, which showed that Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated in March and pointed to broadening inflation in Japan. In contrast, traders have placed a large bet on the Bank of England (BoE) lowering interest rates amid growing concerns about the economic fallout from Trump's trade tariffs. This marks a big divergence in comparison to hawkish BoJ expectations, which supports prospects for further depreciation for the GBP/JPY cross. However, sustained USD selling lends support to the British Pound (GBP) and could help limit deeper losses. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
08:23 EUR/JPY attracts some sellers to near 161.50 amid safe-haven flows
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 161.65 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariffs and the escalating US-China trade war.
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The rising safe-haven demands support the Japanese Yen. The preliminary reading of the April HCOB PMI from the Eurozone, Germany will take center stage on Wednesday. The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 161.65 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariffs and the escalating US-China trade war. Persistent trade-related uncertainties triggered by Trump and his fresh attack on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell rattled markets. This, in turn, boosts the safe-haven flows, benefiting the JPY in the near term. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Friday that Trump and his administration were continuing to study whether they could fire the Fed’s Powell. Additionally, the rising bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates might contribute to the JPY’s upside and act as a headwind for EUR/JPY. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week that Japan's real interest rates remain very low and that the BoJ is expected to keep raising interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with projections. The view was further echoed by BoJ board member Junko Nagakawa.On the Euro front, the dovish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) might weigh on the shared currency. The ECB decided to cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25% at its April meeting last week. During the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that US tariffs on EU goods, which had increased from an average of 3% to 13%, were already harming the outlook for the European economy. Investors will keep an eye on the preliminary reading of the HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Eurozone and Germany for April, which is due later on Wednesday. If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the EUR’s losses. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
07:47 FX option expiries for Apr 22 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for Apr 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1325 931m1.1450 1b1.1605 703mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 140.55 430mUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8100 950mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6350 654m0.6400 923m0.6520 617mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4100 739mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8700 680m
07:39 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Hangs near multi-month low; seems vulnerable around 1.3800
The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.3780 region, or a six-month low, and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday.
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Spot prices drop to the 1.3800 mark in the last hour and seem vulnerable to slide further amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).US President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth tariff announcements have weakened investors' confidence in the US economic growth and dented the USD's safe-haven appeal. Adding to this Trump's attack on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell raised doubts about the central bank’s independence and keeps the USD depressed near its lowest level since April 2022 touched on Monday. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices struggle to attract any meaningful buyers and remain below a two-week high touched on Friday amid worries that an all-out trade war would push the global economy into recession and dent fuel demand. This, along with domestic political uncertainty ahead of the Canadian snap election on April 28, could undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and lend support to the USD/CAD pair, though any meaningful bounce still seems elusive. From a technical perspective, the recent breakdown below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), for the first time since October 2024, was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair remains to the downside. Hence, an attempted recovery is more likely to get sold into and remain capped near mid-1.3800s.Some follow-through buying, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and allow spot prices to reclaim the 1.3900 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the 1.3950-1.3955 intermediate hurdle en route to the 1.3975-1.3980 supply zone, though it runs the risk of fizzling out near the 1.4000 psychological mark or the 200-day SMA.On the flip side, weakness below the multi-month low, around the 1.3780 region touched on Monday, will reaffirm the negative bias and pave the way for further losses. The USD/CAD pair might then slide further towards the 1.3750-1.3745 support before eventually dropping to the 1.3700 mark and the next relevant support near the mid-1.3600s. USD/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
07:31 Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj down to -37 in April from previous -34
Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj down to -37 in April from previous -34
07:27 USD/CHF hovers near 0.8050, 14-year lows due to rising US uncertainty, safe-haven demand
USD/CHF continues to slide for the third consecutive session, trading near 0.8070 during Tuesday's Asian session. The pair remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) struggles against a backdrop of escalating economic and political uncertainty in the United States.
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The pair remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) struggles against a backdrop of escalating economic and political uncertainty in the United States.This uncertainty has amplified the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) earlier gains, initially fueled by President Donald Trump’s aggressive reciprocal tariff proposals. These developments have driven investors toward safer assets, such as foreign currencies and gold, away from USD-denominated securities. The CHF’s recent strength against the Euro has also sparked speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may intervene in the currency markets or even revisit negative interest rate policies.Investor sentiment remains fragile due to the ongoing deadlock in global trade negotiations, particularly with China pushing back against Trump’s tariff measures. Further concerns were triggered by Trump’s proposed investigation into critical mineral imports, raising fears of slower economic growth and rising inflation. These factors have bolstered safe-haven demand for the CHF, putting additional downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair.Sentiment was further dampened after Trump publicly criticized Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, renewing concerns over the Fed’s independence. Adding to the uncertainty, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett revealed that Trump is exploring whether he has the authority to remove Powell. In a Truth Social post, Trump also warned that the US economy could face a slowdown unless the Fed acts swiftly to cut interest rates. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
07:20 Gold price surges to $3,500 neighborhood; strong uptrend remains uninterrupted
Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's breakout momentum beyond the $3,400 mark and continues scaling new record highs during the Asian session on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price buying remains unabated as trade uncertainties continue to boost safe-haven demand.Geopolitical risks and Trump's threat to Fed’s independence further benefit the XAU/USD pair.Bulls seem unaffected by extremely overbought conditions on the short-term chart amid a weaker USD.Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's breakout momentum beyond the $3,400 mark and continues scaling new record highs during the Asian session on Tuesday. Fears that US President Donald Trump's tariffs and the escalating US-China trade war could dent global economic growth continue to boost demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion. Apart from this, the recent US Dollar (USD) slump to a three-year low turns out to be another factor fueling the precious metal's ongoing strong move higher. Trump’s back-and-forth tariff announcements have weakened investors' confidence in the US economy. Adding to this Trump's fresh attack on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell raised doubts about the central bank’s independence. This, along with the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed, keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and provides an additional lift to the Gold price. However, extremely overbought conditions on short-term charts warrant caution before placing fresh bullish bets around the XAU/USD pair. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid worries about tariffs-driven economic slowdownThe uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs and their impact on the global economy continues to push the safe-haven Gold price to fresh record highs on Tuesday. Moreover, Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies, along with a call to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, keeps investors on the edge and further benefits the commodity. Trump accused Powell of not moving fast enough to bring down interest rates. Furthermore, Trump and his team are studying whether they can oust Powell before the end of his term. This raises doubts over the Fed's monetary policy independence, which, along with bets that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle, continues to weigh on the US Dollar. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in June and deliver at least three rate reductions in 2025. On the geopolitical front, Russian forces had launched 96 drones and three missiles into eastern and southern Ukraine after the 30-hour short-lived and partially observed Easter ceasefire.Traders now look forward to the release of the Richmond Manufacturing Index from the US, which, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand.The focus, however, will remain on the flash PMIs on Wednesday, which would offer fresh insight into the global economic health and provide some meaningful impetus to the XAU/USD pair. Gold price overbought conditions make it prudent to wait for a near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before the next leg upFrom a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains well above the 70 mark and warrants caution for bulls. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before placing fresh bullish bets around the Gold price and positioning for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past four months or so. In the meantime, any meaningful corrective slide is likely to find decent support near the $3,425-3,423 horizontal zone ahead of the $3,400 mark. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price further toward the $3,358-3,357 region. This is followed by the $3,344 support, which if broken decisively should pave the way for deeper losses. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
06:37 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Rises to near 1.1550, four-year highs
EUR/USD extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests growing buying pressure and as the pair is moving upwards within an ascending channel pattern.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD may revisit the four-year high at 1.1573.The 14-day RSI remains above 70, indicating overbought conditions and hinting at a potential downward correction.Immediate support is seen near the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around 1.1400.EUR/USD extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests growing buying pressure and as the pair is moving upwards within an ascending channel pattern.Furthermore, the EUR/USD pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signalling strengthened short-term price momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, remains above the 70 mark, suggesting that the pair is overbought and a downward correction is on the horizon.On the upside, the EUR/USD pair could retest the 1.1573, the highest since November 2021, which was recorded on April 21. A break above this level could reinforce the bullish bias and lead the pair to explore the region around the ascending channel’s upper boundary at the 1.1830 level.The EUR/USD pair could test immediate support around the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 1.1400, followed by the nine-day EMA at the 1.1348 level. A break below this crucial support zone could weaken the bullish bias and put pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the 50-day EMA at the 1.0917 level.EUR/USD: Daily Chart Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.22% -0.21% -0.52% -0.27% -0.29% -0.27% -0.17% EUR 0.22% 0.00% -0.36% -0.08% -0.13% -0.07% 0.03% GBP 0.21% -0.00% -0.34% -0.09% -0.12% -0.07% 0.03% JPY 0.52% 0.36% 0.34% 0.27% 0.23% 0.34% 0.41% CAD 0.27% 0.08% 0.09% -0.27% -0.04% -0.01% 0.08% AUD 0.29% 0.13% 0.12% -0.23% 0.04% 0.04% 0.14% NZD 0.27% 0.07% 0.07% -0.34% 0.00% -0.04% 0.11% CHF 0.17% -0.03% -0.03% -0.41% -0.08% -0.14% -0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
06:12 USD/INR remains weak as concerns over Fed’s independence rise
The Indian Rupee (INR) edges higher on Tuesday after hitting a four-month high in the previous session. The rally in Indian equities could provide some support to the Indian currency.
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Positive trends in Indian equities and concerns over the Fed’s independence could boost the INR. Traders brace for the speeches from Fed’s Harker and Kashkari later on Tuesday.The Indian Rupee (INR) edges higher on Tuesday after hitting a four-month high in the previous session. The rally in Indian equities could provide some support to the Indian currency. Additionally, anxiety over tariffs and criticism of US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell by US President Donald Trump could drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and benefit the INR. On the other hand, markets will watch the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which seems to be buying the USD to curb the INR rise. The rising expectation that the RBI will deliver an interest rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting could weigh on the local currency. The latest data showed that the Indian inflation rate declined to its lowest in over five years in March, well below the RBI's midpoint target of 4%. The Fed’s Patrick Harker and Neel Kashkari are set to speak later on Tuesday. On Wednesday, India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April and US S&P Global PMI reports will be in the spotlight. Indian Rupee gains ground on US-India trade developmentsIndia’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US Vice President JD Vance welcomed “significant progress” in the ongoing negotiations for a mutually beneficial Bilateral Trade Deal (BTA). According to the US Trade Representative, they formally announced the finalisation of the Terms of Reference for the negotiations, laying down a roadmap for further discussions about shared economic priorities.US President Donald Trump slammed the Fed’s Powell for continuing to support a “wait and see” mode on the monetary policy until greater clarity over how the new tariff policy will shape the economic outlook. Trump warned in a Truth Social post that the US economy would slow unless Powell lowered interest rates immediately.White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Friday that Trump and his team were continuing to study whether they could fire the Fed’s Powell. USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains in place under the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee trades on a firmer note on the day. However, traders should note that the price remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart, suggesting the longer-term downtrend remains intact. The downward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 38.10. The crucial support level for USD/INR is located at the 85.00-84.95 region, representing the psychological level and the lower limit of the descending trend channel. If bearish pressure kicks in, this could drag the pair towards 84.53, the low of December 6, 2024. The additional downside filter to watch is 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024. On the other hand, the 100-day EMA at 85.85 acts as an immediate resistance level for the pair. If USD/INR holds above this level and buyers step in, the pair could make a run for 86.55, the upper boundary of the trend channel. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
05:41 WTI trades with positive bias, remains below $63.00 as bulls seem cautious amid tariff jitters
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices edge higher during the Asian session on Tuesday, though the intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction.
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The commodity remains below a two-week high touched last Friday and currently trades around the $62.80-$62.85 region, up just over 0.30% for the day.Signs of progress in nuclear deal talks between the US and Iran helped ease supply concerns, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor behind the overnight slide in Crude Oil prices. In fact, the US and Iran agreed on Saturday to commence expert-level discussions to design a framework for a potential nuclear deal. The expert meetings are scheduled on Wednesday, with a follow-up session planned for Saturday to assess progress. Adding to this worries that an all-out trade war would trigger a global recession and dent fuel demand contributes to capping the upside for the black liquid. However, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play on the back of the protracted Russia-Ukraine war. This, along with the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD), acts as a tailwind for the USD-denominated commodities, including Crude Oil prices.Meanwhile, Trump accused Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell of not moving fast enough to bring down interest rates. Moreover, the White House suggested that Trump and his team are studying if they could fire Powell, raising doubts over the Fed's independence. This comes on top of the weakening investors' confidence in the US economy and fails to assist the USD to register any meaningful recovery from a three-year low set on Monday. The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets around Crude Oil prices. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the flash PMIs on Wednesday for cues about the global economic health, which, in turn, should provide some meaningful impetus to the commodity. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
05:39 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD edges lower to near $32.50 as US Dollar stages a recovery
Silver price (XAG/USD) dips slightly during Tuesday’s Asian session, trading around $32.60 per troy ounce, after posting gains in the previous session. The grey metal is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) regains strength.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver prices face downward pressure as the US Dollar strengthens, buoyed by a rebound in the 2-year US Treasury yield.Silver may find support from persistent safe-haven demand driven by growing economic uncertainty.White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett confirmed that President Trump is exploring legal options to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.Silver price (XAG/USD) dips slightly during Tuesday’s Asian session, trading around $32.60 per troy ounce, after posting gains in the previous session. The grey metal is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) regains strength. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, hovers near 98.30, supported by a rebound in the 2-year US Treasury yield, now at 3.77%.However, Silver could regain momentum as safe-haven demand persists amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The DXY recently fell to a three-year low after US President Donald Trump intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), urging aggressive rate cuts and reportedly exploring the dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett confirmed that Trump is looking into the legal grounds for removing Powell. In a Truth Social post, Trump also warned that the economy could falter unless the Fed acts quickly to lower rates.This rising political has boosted demand for safe-haven assets like Silver. Investor sentiment is also shaken by the continued stalemate in global trade talks, with China pushing back against Trump’s tariff tactics. Additionally, Trump’s proposed probe into critical mineral imports has stoked fears of slower growth and higher inflation—factors that may continue to support Silver prices. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
05:11 Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand amid US tariff woes, BoJ rate hike bets
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday amid receding hopes for a quick US-Japan trade deal. Furthermore, signs of stability in the Asian equity markets and a modest bounce in the US indices futures undermine the safe-haven JPY.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen retreated slightly from a multi-month high touched against the USD on Monday.Trade war concerns, global recession fears, and BoJ rate hike bets should limit deeper JPY losses.Trump's threat to Fed’s independence might cap any meaningful bounce for the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday amid receding hopes for a quick US-Japan trade deal. Furthermore, signs of stability in the Asian equity markets and a modest bounce in the US indices futures undermine the safe-haven JPY. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) rebound from a three-year low touched on Monday, lifts the USD/JPY pair back above the 141.00 round-figure mark.Meanwhile, investors remain worried about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies. This, along with worries that an all-out trade war would trigger a global recession, might keep a lid on any optimism in the markets and act as a tailwind for the JPY. Moreover, bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates further in 2025 should contribute to limiting deeper JPY losses. Japanese Yen bulls turn cautious amid receding hopes for a US-Japan trade deal; downside seems cushionedFollowing the first Japan-US negotiations last week, Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa said that any agreement would likely take some time as it's difficult to say how long it will take to bridge the gap between the two sides.Akazawa added that agriculture will not be compromised to protect the auto industry in US tariff talks. Meanwhile, Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato will meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later this week to discuss currency rates.Investors remained on edge amid the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs and the effect of the erratic trade war on the global economy. Moreover, Trump’s fresh attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rattled markets. Trump accused Powell of not moving fast enough to bring down interest rates. Powell last week said that the central bank was not inclined to cut interest rates in the near future amid the possible inflationary pressures stemming from the new tariffs. Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has suggested that Trump and his team are studying if they could fire Powell. This raises doubts over the independence of the central bank and keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive. The Bank of Japan is reportedly planning to signal next week that there is almost no need to change its basic stance on raising interest rates as the potential impact of increased US tariffs will not disrupt the ongoing cycle of wage growth and inflation.This marks a big divergence in comparison to expectations that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs by one full percentage point by the end of this year. This should further benefit the lower-yielding JPY. Traders now look forward to the release of the Richmond Manufacturing Index from the US later this Tuesday. This, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD and provide short-term impetus to the USD/JPY pair. The focus will then shift to the global flash PMIs on Wednesday, which would offer a fresh insight into the global economic health. Apart from this, trade-related developments will play a key role in driving the market sentiment and the JPY demand. USD/JPY needs to surpass the 141.60-141.65 immediate barrier to support prospects for any further recoveryFrom a technical perspective, the slightly oversold daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding back traders from placing fresh bearish bets around the USD/JPY pair. Any subsequent move up, however, is likely to confront stiff resistance near the 141.65-141.60 horizontal support breakpoint. That said, a sustained strength above could trigger a short-covering rally and lift spot prices beyond the 142.00 round figure, toward the next relevant hurdle near the 142.35-142.40 region.On the flip side, the 140.45 area, or the multi-month low touched on Monday, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall toward the 140.00 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards challenging the 2024 yearly swing low, around the 139.60-139.55 region. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:57 Breaking: Gold breaks through $3,450, fresh record highs
Gold price continues to build on its record rally, hitting another all-time high above $3,450 in Asian trading on Tuesday. Investors continue to flock to safety in the traditional store of value, the Gold price, amidst heightened risks of a US recession and financial market instability.
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No confidence in the US Dollar and Trump’s attacks on Powell keep haven demand intact for Gold price.RSI stays heavily overbought on the daily chart as Gold remains ‘buy-the-dip’ trades.Gold price continues to build on its record rally, hitting another all-time high above $3,450 in Asian trading on Tuesday. Investors continue to flock to safety in the traditional store of value, the Gold price, amidst heightened risks of a US recession and financial market instability.These factors continue to show a lack of confidence in the US Dollar (USD), fuelling the demand for the USD-denominated Gold price.US President Donald Trump continued to berate Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, raising concerns over the Fed’s independence. This comes after the Trump administration reportedly studied whether they could remove the Fed Chief.Additionally, the US-China trade war escalation and its negative impact on the US economy and inflation remain a tailwind for the Gold price.Looking ahead, Gold price will likely remain the go-to asset amid heightened financial market uncertainty and Trump’s constant attacks on Fed Chair Powell. Additionally, a lack of top-tier US economic data will leave Gold price at the mercy of risk sentiment and tariff headlines. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
04:55 Australian Dollar appreciates amid rising concerns about Fed’s independence
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar rises as investor sentiment wavered following renewed criticism from President Trump targeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.White House’s Hassett stated that Trump is considering whether he has the authority to remove Powell from his position.China continues to stand its ground against Trump’s hardline tariff approach, adding to global market uncertainty.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The AUD/USD pair appreciates as investor sentiment took a hit following renewed criticism from US President Donald Trump directed at Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, raising fresh concerns about the Fed’s independence.White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett told on Friday that Trump is exploring whether he has the authority to dismiss Powell. Trump also warned in a Truth Social post that the economy could slow down unless Powell acts swiftly to lower interest rates.Adding to the market jitters was the ongoing deadlock in global trade negotiations. China has remained firm in the face of Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy, further weighing on investor confidence.Nonetheless, tensions remained as the White House imposed tariffs on Chinese ships docking at US ports, risking disruption to global shipping routes. However, late Thursday, Trump noted that China had made several overtures and stated, “I don't want to go higher on China tariffs. If China tariffs go higher, people won't buy.” He also expressed optimism that a trade deal could be reached within three to four weeks.Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar may struggle due to concerns about the Fed’s independenceFederal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell warned that a sluggish economy paired with persistent inflation could challenge the Fed’s objectives and raise the risk of stagflation.The US Department of Labor reported on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215,000 for the week ending April 12, below expectations and down from the previous week's revised figure of 224,000 (originally 223,000). However, Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 41,000 to 1.885 million for the week ending April 5.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, down from 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% annually, compared to 3.1% previously and missing the 3.0% estimate. On a monthly basis, headline CPI dipped by 0.1%, while core CPI edged up by 0.1%.Australia’s Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% in March, slightly below the market forecast of 4.2%. Meanwhile, Employment Change came in at 32.2K, against the consensus forecast of 40K.Australia’s Westpac Leading Index’s six-month annualised growth rate, which forecasts economic momentum relative to the trend over the next three to nine months, eased to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February.Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) March 31–April 1 Meeting Minutes indicated ongoing uncertainty around the timing of the next interest rate adjustment. Although the Board considered the May meeting a suitable point to review monetary policy, it stressed that no decisions had been made in advance. The Board also pointed to both upside and downside risks facing Australia's economy and inflation trajectory.China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the pace seen in Q4 2024 and surpassing market expectations of 5.1%. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose by 1.2% in Q1, following a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter, falling short of the forecasted 1.4% gain.Meanwhile, China’s Retail Sales surged 5.9% year-over-year, beating expectations of 4.2% and up from February’s 4%. Industrial Production also outperformed, rising 7.7% compared to the 5.6% forecast and February’s 5.9% print.Australian Dollar breaks above 0.6400 toward four-month highsThe AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6420 on Tuesday, with technical indicators on the daily chart suggesting a bullish outlook. The pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above the neutral 50 level—both pointing to sustained upward momentum.On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the four-month high of 0.6408, last tested on February 21. A decisive break above this zone could pave the way for a move toward the five-month high at 0.6515.The initial support is located at the nine-day EMA around 0.6408, with further downside protection near the 50-day EMA at 0.6292. A break below these levels may undermine the short-term bullish bias and expose the AUD/USD pair to deeper losses toward the 0.5914 area—its lowest level since March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.16% 0.02% -0.01% -0.07% -0.01% 0.07% 0.32% EUR -0.16% -0.15% -0.18% -0.25% -0.21% -0.10% 0.15% GBP -0.02% 0.15% -0.02% -0.11% -0.06% 0.05% 0.30% JPY 0.01% 0.18% 0.02% -0.07% -0.03% 0.14% 0.37% CAD 0.07% 0.25% 0.11% 0.07% 0.05% 0.14% 0.37% AUD 0.00% 0.21% 0.06% 0.03% -0.05% 0.09% 0.34% NZD -0.07% 0.10% -0.05% -0.14% -0.14% -0.09% 0.26% CHF -0.32% -0.15% -0.30% -0.37% -0.37% -0.34% -0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:55 NZD/USD remains capped below 0.6000 on escalating US-china trade tensions
The NZD/USD pair softens to near 0.5995 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges lower against the US Dollar amid the escalating trade war tensions between the US and China.
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China warned nations against appeasing the US in trade deals. Trump said the US economy could slow down unless interest rates fall immediately.The NZD/USD pair softens to near 0.5995 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges lower against the US Dollar amid the escalating trade war tensions between the US and China. However, the downside for the pair might be limited as traders are concerned about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence under the Trump administration.China warned that it will hit back at the nations that make deals with the US that hurt Beijing's interests, as the trade war between the US and China threatens to drag in other nations. "China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests. If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures,” said a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson.The comments came after reports that the US plans to pressure governments to restrict trade with China in exchange for exemptions to US tariffs. The rising trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies weigh on the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is New Zealand's largest trading partner.Despite the surge in inflation, money markets have fully priced in a rate hike at the May meeting. The RBNZ cut rates by a quarter-point earlier this month, lowering its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.5%, the lowest level since October 2022. The New Zealand central bank is expected to remain aggressive and continue cutting rates to boost the New Zealand economy. This, in turn, might contribute to the NZD’s downside. Nonetheless, the concerns over the Fed's independence could drag the Greenback lower and cap the downside for the pair. US President Donald Trump repeated his criticism of Fed’s Powell, saying that the US economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2074 vs. 7.2055 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.2074 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2055.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.2074 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2055. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:04 GBP/USD edges higher above 1.3350 as Trump’s attacks on Powell threaten Fed’s independence
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3370 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Fears of a slowdown in the United States (US) and concerns over the Federal Reserve (Fed) independence drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and create a tailwind for a major pair.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
03:21 USD/CAD remains on the defensive below 1.3850 amid Fed independence fears
The USD/CAD pair loses ground to near 1.3835 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid fears of a slowdown in the US and concerns over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence.
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Concerns about the Fed’s independence and US economic slowdown drag the US Dollar lower. Lower crude oil prices might weigh on the Loonie and cap the pair’s downside. The USD/CAD pair loses ground to near 1.3835 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid fears of a slowdown in the US and concerns over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence.White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Friday that US President Donald Trump is looking into whether he can fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump noted in a Truth Social post that the economy would slow unless Powell lowered interest rates immediately. The Greenback faces some selling pressure, hitting a three-year low as traders raise questions about the Fed’s independence. Additionally, a lack of progress on global trade dents investor confidence. Trade tensions seemed to increase after China warned other nations not to strike any deal with the US that would hurt Beijing. “If uncertainty continues for an extended period of time — meaning multiple quarters — I think that becomes more challenging for corporate earnings and decision-making, and we’ve seen some of that in the earnings season so far,” said Robert Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank.Meanwhile, a fall in Crude Oil prices on signs of progress in talks between the US and Iran could undermine the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
03:12 Japan’s Akazawa: Agriculture will not be compromised in US tariff talks
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said early Tuesday he shares Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s stance that agriculture will not be compromised to protect the auto industry in US tariff talks.
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Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said early Tuesday he shares Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s stance that agriculture will not be compromised to protect the auto industry in US tariff talks.Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato is scheduled to visit Washington later this week, where he is expected to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss currency rates.Market reaction At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.12% on the day to trade at 141.01. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
02:08 EUR/USD gathers strength above 1.1500 as Trump threatens Fed independence
The EUR/USD pair extends its upside to around 1.1520 during the early Asian session on Tuesday, pressured by a weaker US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its lowest since March 2022, near 98.30, as traders kept losing confidence in the US economy.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:46 New Zealand Imports rose from previous $6.23B to $6.62B in March
New Zealand Imports rose from previous $6.23B to $6.62B in March
01:46 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) increased to $970M in March from previous $510M
New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) increased to $970M in March from previous $510M
01:45 New Zealand Exports climbed from previous $6.74B to $7.59B in March
New Zealand Exports climbed from previous $6.74B to $7.59B in March
01:45 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) up to $-6.13B in March from previous $-6.51B
New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) up to $-6.13B in March from previous $-6.51B
01:27 USD/CHF extends decline nears 13-year low as Trump-Powell rift deepens
The USD/CHF extended its losses for the third consecutive day as market mood shifted sour due to US President Donald Trump's attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which investors saw as a threat to the independence of the US central bank. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8080, down 0.06.
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01:00 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bearish momentum persists despite intraday stability ahead of Asian session
The AUDJPY pair is flashing bearish signals, currently trading around 90.33, a dip of 0.35% on the day.
AUD/JPY trades near the 90.50 zone, struggling to build upside momentum despite limited downside so far today.Bearish bias persists as key moving averages continue to point downward, while oscillators remain largely neutral.Support rests at 90.21, while resistance stands at 90.70, 90.83, and 90.89.The AUDJPY pair is flashing bearish signals, currently trading around 90.33, a dip of 0.35% on the day. Price action is contained within the daily range of 89.974 to 90.714 during Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, with the pair unable to breach higher resistance areas or reclaim bullish traction.Momentum indicators offer mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints at 42.576, maintaining a neutral stance. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a mild buy signal, hinting at potential stabilization in downside momentum. Meanwhile, the Stochastic %K at 49.802 and the Williams Percent Range at -53.980 also sit in neutral zones, suggesting indecision in short-term sentiment.However, the broader outlook remains bearish, with all major moving averages continuing to trend downward. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands at 91.607, the 100-day at 95.322, and the 200-day at 97.368 — all above the current price and flashing strong sell signals. Shorter-term exponential indicators like the 10-day EMA at 90.667 and the 30-day EMA at 92.016 further reinforce the bearish bias.Support is seen at 90.196, a key level to monitor for potential downside extension. On the upside, resistance is located at 90.667, followed by 90.772 and 90.899. Unless the pair breaks through these caps, bearish pressure is likely to persist in the near term.
Daily chart
Daily chart
00:30 AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Bearish signals deepen as Aussie struggles against Kiwi
The AUD/NZD pair is exhibiting bearish signals, currently trading around 1.0700, down 0.40% today, and positioned mid-range between 1.06784 and 1.07439 during Monday’s session.
AUD/NZD trades near the 1.0700 area, retreating from intraday highs ahead of the Asian session.Overall bearish sentiment persists despite neutral oscillators, with all key moving averages pointing to downside pressure.Support lies at 1.06949, while resistance levels are seen at 1.07691, 1.07711, and 1.08238.The AUD/NZD pair is exhibiting bearish signals, currently trading around 1.0700, down 0.40% today, and positioned mid-range between 1.06784 and 1.07439 during Monday’s session. The pair's inability to hold higher ground underlines the weight of selling pressure as the broader trend continues to favor the downside.Momentum indicators provide mixed but cautious readings. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 31, close to oversold territory yet still holding a neutral bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to flash a sell signal, in alignment with the Awesome Oscillator at -0.0185, which also suggests downside continuation. Meanwhile, the Stochastic %K at 9.2611 remains neutral, lacking clear directional conviction.The moving averages confirm the bearish technical structure. All key SMAs — 20-day at 1.0859, 100-day at 1.1010, and 200-day at 1.1000 — are sloping downward, along with shorter-term indicators like the 10-day EMA at 1.0769 and 10-day SMA at 1.0771, which further validate the dominant bearish bias.Support is found at 1.06949. Resistance is capped at 1.07691, followed by 1.07711 and 1.08238. If selling continues and the pair slips below the 1.0690 zone, a fresh wave of downside could be triggered.
Daily chart
Daily chart
00:12 Mexican Peso holds firm despite Powell ouster talk, USD/MXN below 20.00
The Mexican Peso erased some of its earlier gains, yet it remains poised to continue to gain ground against the US Dollar as investors keep the Greenback bid after US President Donald Trump's comments that he could oust Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell rattled the markets.
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The USD/MXN trades at 19.71, up 0.05%.Last week, the Peso registered close to 3% gains, with the USD/MXN falling from 20.29 to 19.70 as market participants sold the US Dollar due to their lack of confidence in policymakers. The trade war weighed on the Greenback as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against six others, fell 1.06% to 98.35.Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum commented that there is not an agreement with Trump about lifting US tariffs. She said, “We didn’t reach an agreement, but we did establish our arguments. In the case of steel and aluminum, we established that we have a deficit. The US exports more steel and aluminum to Mexico than Mexico to the US.”Mexico’s economic docket will be busy this week, with traders awaiting the release of Retail Sales, Mid-month inflation, and Economic Activity data.Mexican products have dodged most tariffs. Nevertheless, US imports of steel, aluminum cars and auto parts remain subject to 25% duties. Last week, Washington decided to apply 21% tariffs on tomatoes.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso stays firm amid absent economic docketPostures between Banco de Mexico (Banxico) and the Fed favor further upside in the USD/MXN. At the May meeting, Banxico is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points (bps). On the contrary, the Fed is seen as cautious, as some officials have shown concerns about a reacceleration of inflation spurred by tariffs.Mexico’s Mid-month inflation is expected to rise from 3.67% to 3.79% YoY and core figures to increase from 3.56% to 3.77% YoY.Economists project that the Mexican economy will most likely improve in February after contracting -0.2% MoM in January and will expand by 0.6%. Every year, the economy is projected to contract sharply from -0.1% to -0.6%.Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said the central bank is ready to continue easing policy.Money market players have priced in 96 bps of Fed easing toward the end of 2025 with the first cut expected in July.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso holds firm as USD/MXN stays below 20.00The USD/MXN turned bearish after it dropped below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 19.89. This exacerbated the drop toward 19.58, a five-month low, before paring some losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown that sellers are losing momentum, opening the door for buyers to challenge the 200-day SMA.A breach of the latter will expose the psychological 20.00 barrier. If cleared, the next stop would be the confluence of the April 14 high and the 50-day SMA near 20.25-20.29 before testing the 100-day SMA at 20.33. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
00:00 South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) remains unchanged at 0% in March
South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) remains unchanged at 0% in March
00:00 South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) dipped from previous 1.5% to 1.3% in March
South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) dipped from previous 1.5% to 1.3% in March
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
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